Central Florida

[virgo10]

The current temp in my town is 64 degrees. It feels absolutely wonderful!

[virgo10]

Florida weather is manic/depressive.

Quote:225
SXUS72 KTBW 182149
RERSRQ

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
549 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT SARASOTA BRADENTON...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES WAS SET AT
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 1977.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 211745
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DISCOUNTING THE
GFS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH BACKS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MORE NORTHEAST. WARM HUMID BUT RAINFREE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONTINUING TREND TOWARDS MINIMIZING THE IMPACTS OF A FROPA ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GFS PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL FL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ECMWF SLOWS IT DOWN A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND BRINGS A
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EVEN SO...DO NOT FEEL VERY CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS ABOVE CURRENT
ISOLATED/20 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE
FRONT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
FEATURE SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS BY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAS
BACKED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE AND NOW SHOW A MUCH WEAKER LOW...MAYBE EVEN BECOMING A WAVE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
FLORIDA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IN GUIDANCE WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE TUE/WED AFTERNOON POPS TO LOW/END SCT 30
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO WITH SOME LOCATION
CLIMBING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FMY AND RSW COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FEET. BUT IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT CREATING HIGHER SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 88 71 89 / 5 10 5 10
FMY 67 88 70 90 / 5 10 5 10
GIF 66 87 68 88 / 5 10 5 10
SRQ 67 88 69 89 / 5 10 5 10
BKV 61 87 64 89 / 5 10 5 10
SPG 70 88 72 88 / 5 10 5 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TR

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TROF AXIS INTO THE W GULF. ASSOCIATED POTENT
CORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
N FL AND THE N GULF. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW SHOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE TO SUMMER LIKE 2.22 OF PWATS IN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LI OF -5.4 AND CAPE OF 3781 USING A TEMP AROUND
FORECASTED WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER AND WARMING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH END CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER LEVY COUNTY AND COASTAL
WATERS CLOSEST TO BEST DYNAMICS TODAY. LATEST GRIDS AND FORECAST SHOW
THIS WELL NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE ATTM. HAVE
MAINTAINED VFR WITH VICINITY SHRA STARTING AT 14Z AND TSRA AT
18-19Z...EXCEPT HAVE HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON.
SE TO SOUTH WINDS...AND ROBUST AT TIMES...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...5 MB GRADIENT OVER E GULF TO KEEP MODERATE SE-S WINDS
AND SEAS IN PLACE TODAY. LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATING WINDS
10-15 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 15-20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE AS WELL. SCEC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OFFSHORE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS JUST BELOW HIGHLIGHTS NEAR SHORE.
LATEST FORECASTS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 88 74 / 50 30 40 20
FMY 90 73 89 74 / 50 20 30 20
GIF 88 73 90 71 / 50 30 40 20
SRQ 87 74 88 73 / 50 30 40 20
BKV 87 72 89 70 / 50 40 40 20
SPG 87 76 88 77 / 50 30 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...09/RUDE

[ocala]

Man, heat index up over 90. Feels like August again.
Just can't shake summertime around here.
A whole lot of rain in the Gulf but I doubt it makes much progress inland.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 281726
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING TO
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TODAY TO MOVE NWARD
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY PUSHING BACK DOWN TYPE FRONT INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. ALL FEATURES COMBINE FOR GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS TODAY TO MOVE EWARD AND WANE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO N FL THU ONLY EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH AROUND 30 POPS IN EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AND
PARTLY-MOSTLY SKIES FURTHER SOUTH. WITH LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
SUPPRESSION ALOFT EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. ON
FRIDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA AND A BIT MOVE CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD WARM BUT BELOW RECORDS. NAM MOS POPS APPEAR TOO HIGH
AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MISS. RIVER VALLEY MON. THIS
TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL FL MON AND THEN SOUTH FL
TUE. A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RATHER QUICKLY
BRIDGE THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE SUN AND THEN
VEERING TO THE NE BY WED. THESE WINDS MAY BE RATHER ROBUST AT TIMES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE FORECAST...WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT IS WEAK AND SOME
DRIER AIR WORKS IN STARTING TUE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY DAYTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH TO SSW WINDS WITH JUST LCL MVFR CIG. EXPECT THESE
TO LIFT TO VFR BUT VCSH/VCTS THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR 10Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS. W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY FOR
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS FRI/SAT. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW TO WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WITH NW FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 88 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 73 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 72 92 71 89 / 20 20 20 20
SRQ 73 89 74 88 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 69 91 69 88 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 74 89 74 87 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE

[virgo10]

Here we go again.

Quote:RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
359 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2009

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TAMPA...

AT 340 EDT THIS AFTERNOON...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT
THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGH OF 88 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1984. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1890. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE TEMPERATURE COULD RISE
ANOTHER DEGREE BEFORE SUNSET.

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[virgo10]

Not much in the way of weather going on here. To put it simply it is just plain

B E A U T I F U L

cool2