Dallas/Ft.Worth area

[boatng4life]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271400-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007

.NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
WILL CONTINUE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE...AND FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG WILL BE COMMON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
JACKSBORO TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$

JAS

[boatng4life]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo Tx
355 Am Cdt Wed Mar 28 2007

Txz049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-290900-
Fisher-nolan-sterling-coke-runnels-irion-tom Green-concho-
Crockett-schleicher-sutton-haskell-throckmorton-jones-shackelford-
Taylor-callahan-coleman-brown-mcculloch-san Saba-menard-kimble-
Mason-
355 Am Cdt Wed Mar 28 2007

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of West Central
Texas.

.day One...today And Tonight

Significant Severe Weather Is Possible Across Portions Of West
Central Texas This Afternoon And Tonight. A Dryline Will Begin To
Sharpen Up Across The Texas Panhandle Southward Into The Trans
Pecos By Late This Afternoon...with At Least Isolated Severe
Storms Developing Just Ahead Of The Dryline. These Storms Will Move
Northeast Into West Central Texas This Evening And Through The
Overnight Hours And Begin To Increase In Coverage. Although All
Of West Central Will See A Threat Of Severe Storms...the Most
Likely Area Will Be Across The Northwest Big Country...along And
Northwest Of Sweetwater To Haskell Line.

Any Storm That Does Develop Will Have The Potential Of Producing
Significant Severe Weather...with Large Tornadoes...very Large
Hail...damaging Winds And Very Heavy Rainfall All Possible Threats.

.days Two Through Seven...thursday Through Tuesday

The Dryline Will Shift Back West Tonight...with More Storms
Possibly Developing Along The Drlyine Across At Least The Western
Portions Of West Central Texas Thursday Afternoon. A Cold Front
Wily Eventually The Dryline And Move Across West Central Texas On
Friday...with More Storms Developing Along The Front. The Storms
On Both Thursday And Friday May Also Reach Severe Levels.

.spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation Will Likely Be Required Across At Least The
Western Portions Of West Central Texas By Mid Evening...and May Be
Required Later This Evening And During The Overnight Hours Across
The Remainder Of West Central Texas.

$$

[Alex]

There was a nice light show to the north and east earlier today, and those storms ended up dumping a quick 0.23 inches as they moved through the north Dallas area. Its thundering again and another round of storms is moving southward. Rain chances are up to 50% for tomorrow after only being at 20% all week.

Nowcast as of 10:52 PM CDT on September 3, 2009

Now
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across North Texas through 1 am. The stronger storms will produce periods of heavy rainfall...wind gusts to 50 mph and frequent lightning. All showers and storms will move southeast around 30 mph. Storms should be ongoing through sunrise.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 160846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOUSED NORTH TEXAS THIS PAST WEEKEND
IS MAKING A RETURN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
IS ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO SLOWLY SLIDE WEST IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHOWERS BUT DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
ARKANSAS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE DOWN THROUGH EAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN INTO LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI LAST NIGHT SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. TODAY...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AND THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN HALF
ON THURSDAY. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SINCE THIS AREA RECEIVED THE
SMALLEST IMPACTS FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN EVENT. HPC QPF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS BUT AM
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH THESE AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS.

MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF LIFT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF AND NAM ASSIMILATE THE UPPER LOW WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS SWING THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS BROAD
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PWATS OVER ONE
INCH. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
AND THEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS WEEKEND.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE FASTER GFS ON THIS SOLUTION BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO NORTH TEXAS. A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S /POSSIBLY UPPER 70S/.

HAVE UNDERCUT MOST MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH. ALSO UNDERCUT MOS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
NEXT WEEK...BUT STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS OTHERWISE.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 68 78 67 84 / 80 70 50 20 20
WACO, TX 80 71 81 69 86 / 40 40 50 20 20
PARIS, TX 75 69 76 67 81 / 90 80 60 20 20
DENTON, TX 75 69 79 68 84 / 80 70 50 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 76 69 77 68 83 / 90 80 60 20 20
DALLAS, TX 76 69 79 69 84 / 80 70 60 20 20
TERRELL, TX 76 69 79 67 83 / 80 80 60 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 78 69 79 68 83 / 60 70 60 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 81 69 81 69 83 / 20 30 40 20 20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 170903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EAST
TEXAS. SCATTERED DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTH...AND THE WINDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STACKED TODAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING/REDEVELOPING. DESPITE THE WIDELY SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW AND 925-700 MB LOWS
WILL REMAIN OVER LOUISIANA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER
OKLAHOMA KEEPING A WEAKNESS OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED
DOWN A LITTLE BUT AM STILL SIDING WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SQUALL
LINE IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT IS LOW AS THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW FROM THE SYSTEM THAT DIVES DOWN THE
PLAINS. THE GFS WANDERS THIS LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW TO THE WEST AND BUILDS A RIDGE IN
OVER TEXAS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A COOLER FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING DIFFERENCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL AGAIN TODAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS WEEKEND AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR COOLER NIGHTS BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 68 82 70 84 / 80 40 30 20 20
WACO, TX 80 70 85 68 86 / 60 40 30 20 10
PARIS, TX 74 70 78 67 81 / 80 50 30 20 20
DENTON, TX 75 68 83 67 83 / 80 40 30 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 70 82 67 83 / 80 40 30 20 20
DALLAS, TX 78 69 83 69 84 / 80 40 30 20 20
TERRELL, TX 77 67 84 68 83 / 80 50 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 78 68 82 69 85 / 80 50 30 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 80 66 83 67 85 / 50 40 30 20 10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KFWD 182032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS 418 PM TUESDAY...SEPTEMBER 22...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE JUST IN TIME...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS AS
THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN
OVER THE PAST WEEK MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE IN THE NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...
CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND FOR ONE MORE DAY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE SUN
SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRIER WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER.

THE START OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS VERY INTERESTING WITH THE SEASONS
FIRST DECENT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PER GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH NORTH TEXAS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE MAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPIN ITS WHEELS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 67 84 70 85 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 67 86 67 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 65 80 65 83 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 63 82 65 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 65 82 64 85 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 68 83 70 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 67 83 67 84 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 67 83 67 87 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 84 66 89 69 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 202035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS THAT THIS STRONG FRONT MAY HAVE
ON NORTH TX.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS ROCKIES WITH 10-12 DM
HEIGHT FALLS AT THE H500 LVL OVER MT. H850 ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
BEHIND THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH A CANADIAN AIRMASS WAS ALREADY
BUILDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN MT SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN OR. H850 ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED RICH GULF MOISTURE JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH TX...EXTENDING ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
REGION. H250 ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK DIGGING
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
100-110 KTS IN THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL JET. 20Z WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST...AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...AND WOULD EXPECT THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX TO FOLLOW. THIS WEAK TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A CISCO
TO GAINESVILLE LINE A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTMS THRU SUNSET.
IN OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WOULD EXPECT THAT AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER/TSTM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU SUNSET. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEAK TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST...AS THIS FEATURE
COULD CONTINUE RAIN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES ACRS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IF IT DOES NOT LIFT NORTH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AS THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH TX...AND THE COMBINATION
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS THE CWA. PLACED BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS
NORTH ALONG THE RED RIVER AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE BETTER TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW...AND THEREFORE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE GOOD CONSISTENCY THAT THE STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE CWA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT AND A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTH
TX...EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL COME THRU WITH A NEARLY SOLID LINE
OF CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN AROUND MIDNIGHT...WELL
AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW
LVL FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
TO KEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR THE SFC. WITH MLCAPE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND
MLCIN AT OR BELOW 50 J/KG RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THAT AN
MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT
WITH BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS/SHEAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT
SEE HAIL AS A WIDESPREAD THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL...BUT IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...IT SHOULD NOT HOLD OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA
FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO WARRANT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.
OF COURSE A QUICK 2 INCHES CAN ALWAYS CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...BUT DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
PROBLEM.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IN GENERAL BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY EXPECT
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS MOST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU MOST AREAS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW BECAUSE MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY
THURSDAY MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF AND HOLDING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP COOL CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A GENERAL SENSE...BUT MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS SOON AS MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RETURN TO NORTH
TX. IF THE UPPER LOW HANGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
ECMWF/HPC/CANADIAN MODELS REPRESENT THEN PIECES OF ENERGY ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN AN OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LONG AS THE LOW
HOLDS IN PLACE. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS AT LEAST A WEAK RETURN TO
EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT H850 BY THURSDAY...SO KEPT 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN/TSTMS GOING AT THIS TIME. NOTABLY...THE GFS
CONTINUES TO OFFER AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WHERE THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES WELL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...BRINGING WARM
WEATHER BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER EVEN WITHIN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION AND GO WITH
MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADED INTO THIS WEEKEND. NEARLY ALL MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE (EVEN THE GFS) INDICATES THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD WHERE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS
AND BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD BRING
SOMEWHAT DRIER/WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF THE PLAINS...AND
HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW KEEPING THE WEEKEND DRY
AND GRADUALLY WARMING US BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 90 67 77 60 / 10 20 80 50 20
WACO, TX 72 91 68 78 61 / 10 20 70 60 20
PARIS, TX 67 87 65 78 59 / 10 30 80 50 20
DENTON, TX 69 89 64 76 57 / 10 30 80 40 20
MCKINNEY, TX 68 88 66 77 58 / 10 30 80 50 20
DALLAS, TX 72 90 69 77 63 / 10 20 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 69 89 67 78 59 / 10 20 80 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 69 90 67 79 59 / 10 20 70 70 20
TEMPLE, TX 71 90 67 79 58 / 10 20 60 70 20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KFWD 211739
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 03Z...THEN MVFR
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF TSTMS LOOKS
TO MOVE THRU THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO
PAN OUT LOOKS TO BE A SCT/BKN LINE OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEAR WICHITA FALLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE METROPLEX DURING
THE EVENING HRS. IF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
METROPLEX...CERTAINLY DID NOT HIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS HARD
ENOUGH...IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 40 KTS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTM
OUTFLOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY
POTENTIAL TSTM ACTIVITY BEFORE THIS TROUGH MOVES THRU. CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS/PREFRONTAL TROUGH THRU THE
METROPLEX IS SOMEWHAT LOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4Z...SO WENT WITH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS RANGE FOR THE TAFS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LAG
BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH BY A FEW HRS...HOWEVER IF THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH HAS A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT...IT MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH THE TWO. WILL AMD TAFS AS NECESSARY BASED
ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THRU 00Z.

TODAY...VFR. CHC OF STORMS AT METROPLEX SITES.

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBY. BRIEF PERIODS IFR ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM ACTIVITY.
TSTMS WILL OCCUR AT METROPLEX TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALL DAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TODAY OVER OUR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES
BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TONIGHT NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...AND WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM ABILENE TO
WICHITA BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWING CONSIDERABLY. DOWN
SLOPE/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ENSURE A VERY WARM AFTERNOON AND WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. THESE TEMPS IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES
LIKELY APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
MODES...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. EXPECT PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH STORMS
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE...AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF
I-20 THIS EVENING. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WIND/HAIL.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF...THE FRONT WILL REALLY
LOSE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SW FLOW AT
850 MB AFTER SUNSET WILL CAUSE MCS PROPAGATION VECTORS TO WEAKEN.
ADDITIONALLY...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS CONTOURS SUGGEST BACK BUILDING
OR TRAINING RADAR ECHOS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE SQUALL LINE SEGMENT. HI-RES MODELS EACH PINPOINT A
DIFFERENT AREA...BUT ALL ARE SIMULATING BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION
TONIGHT. THUS WHEREVER THE TRAINING BANDS ORIENTATE THEMSELVES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
TIME. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM
LAST WEEKS RAIN...AND MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON HIGHEST QPF.

CONVECTION/FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA BY NOON
TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. HAVE
CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS REASON. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS WILL BE CLOUDY...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS MOS FOR
HIGHS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND IN THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
IT APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
NORTH OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS EAST...DRIER NW FLOW SHOULD HELP END THE CHANCES OF RAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 66 76 63 78 / 20 90 50 10 10
WACO, TX 94 70 79 64 79 / 10 70 70 20 20
PARIS, TX 90 66 77 62 78 / 30 90 50 20 20
DENTON, TX 92 64 74 59 78 / 20 90 50 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 64 75 60 78 / 20 90 50 10 10
DALLAS, TX 90 67 77 64 79 / 20 90 60 10 10
TERRELL, TX 91 68 79 64 78 / 20 90 70 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 91 70 80 65 79 / 20 70 70 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 79 63 80 / 10 50 70 20 20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-131>135-144>146.


&&

$$

/

[ROLLTIDE]

00
FXUS64 KFWD 221512 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1012 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER OUR
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
LIGHT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA...AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TEMP EFFECTS FROM
THE COLD FRONT ARE IMPACTING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM GRAHAM TO BOWIE. WILL LOWER
HIGH TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...

AN UPDATE FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER TARRANT COUNTY...AND CONTINUE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME. THE TRUE COLD
FRONT...GENERALLY DEFINED BY DRIER DEW POINTS...REMAINS OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS...DO NOT EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LVL DRY
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNTIL WE GET WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD BE UP TO 24 HRS FROM NOW. TAKING A LOOK AT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...DEEPER DRY AIR HAD BUILT
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP PESKY RAIN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE GOING AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. WILL AMEND/UPDATE AS INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF CONVECTION LOOK
TO EFFECT OUR TAF SITES RATHER THAN THROW TEMPO GROUPS IN ALL DAY.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/12Z UPDATE/

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE WACO
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR BKN/OVC015 THROUGH 16Z WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING TO THE
WEST AND MOISTURE STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN METROPLEX...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
FOR NOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON WED.

91/DUNN




&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/
LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. AT 3 AM...SURFACE OBS AND RADAR FINE LINE
INDICATES THE FRONT IS STILL LOCATED FROM ABILENE TO WICHITA
FALLS...AND IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...
FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL RESULT ONLY FROM THE COOLER/HIGHER DENSITY
AIRMASS SPILLING OUTWARD AND UNDERCUTTING WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE.
IN THIS PATTERN...THE COOLEST AIR TENDS TO HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE WEST AND HEADS MORE SOUTH...WITH A WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY
WITH BEST COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT THIS AREA
WILL ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY KEPT EVERYONE IN THE MID 70S TODAY.

MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION...AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER. RADAR ECHOES
TO THE WEST ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF THIS FORCING AND THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.

AFTER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TODAY...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. HAVE
ALSO RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ZONES...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR 80
DEGREES AREAWIDE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW MORE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF I-35.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR...MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 60 80 62 75 / 30 10 10 10 30
WACO, TX 75 60 80 63 78 / 60 20 10 20 40
PARIS, TX 75 61 76 61 74 / 30 10 10 20 50
DENTON, TX 72 57 80 58 75 / 30 10 10 10 30
MCKINNEY, TX 74 58 79 59 75 / 30 10 10 20 40
DALLAS, TX 75 60 79 63 75 / 30 10 10 20 40
TERRELL, TX 74 60 80 64 75 / 30 10 10 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 76 60 78 63 78 / 60 20 10 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 76 59 80 62 79 / 60 20 10 30 40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231739
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS...HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND HOLD AROUND NORTH TX THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 12Z H850 ANALYSIS YIELDED A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
ROUGHLY ALONG A PARIS TO COMANCHE LINE. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SITUATION WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE
NEXT 12 HRS...SO ACT MAY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN.
ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS FAILED TO LOWER CIGS SIGNIFICANTLY...SO HAVE
KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING DESPITE VICINITY PRECIP. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY...SPREADING OVER MUCH OF NORTH TX
BY 18Z. WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305 AND 310 K SFCS
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT OR BELOW 20 MB...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER WITH TIME...AND HAVE PLACED CB IN
THE CLOUD GROUPS WHEN CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST THAT PRECIP WOULD
EFFECT TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HRS.

TODAY...VFR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER ACT.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE AROUND ACT. CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN AT METROPLEX TAF SITES.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE
AFTERNOON HRS. LOWERING CIGS AFT 18Z.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOUTH OF
I-20 FOR TODAY. DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SPRINKLES AND RADAR ECHOES THAN MEASURABLE RAIN...SO POPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT DID NEED TO MENTION THEM FARTHER
NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. ALSO BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES WITH THICKER CLOUDS NOW MORE CERTAIN. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/
LARGE STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STRONG SWLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION...AND IS TRANSPORTING
MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO TEXAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. RADARS IN SW TX ARE
INDICATING RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
THE DYNAMIC FORCING. IT APPEARS MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON
THESE TRENDS...AND EITHER ARE TOO SLOW OR JUST WAY TOO DRY.

SATELLITE INDICATES MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN UP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD STREAM THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WITH LESS SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
LOW POPS ARE PLACED. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH
TEXAS TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND
INTENSIFY FURTHER ON THURSDAY. GFS SHOWS SATURATION IN THE 600-
700MB LAYER THIS EVENING...WHERE MEAGER AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE HI-RES WRF SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNSET. LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL ZONES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIRGA INITIALLY. BEST
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WHERE HIGHEST POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT ARE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY
EXPECT A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST POPS AND HIGHEST QPF OF
GREATER THAN A HALF INCH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL COME INTO
PLAY. MUCH LOWER POPS AND QPF OF LESS THAN 0.1 INCH IS FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...DUE
TO A SHARP GRADIENT OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS.
RAIN SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ON THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ARE TOUGH DUE TO THE
IMPACTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. FELT THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS MUCH
TOO WARM FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...BUT ALSO TOO COOL
FOR LOWS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND DRIER FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS BY
THE WEEKEND...AND MEX NUMBERS ARE REASONABLE. ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING PRIME CONDITIONS FOR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LARGELY UNEVENTFUL...AND BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH FRONT...BUT NO RAIN CHANCES. GFS HAS AN ODD
LOOKING SOLUTION AND BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO TEXAS TUES/WED
WITH LOTS OF RAIN. ECMWF/CANADIAN DO NOT SHOW THIS...AND THEREFORE
OUR FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY AND SEASONABLE NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 61 74 61 80 / 10 10 50 30 10
WACO, TX 72 60 72 60 80 / 20 30 70 40 20
PARIS, TX 73 61 72 60 78 / 10 10 40 50 20
DENTON, TX 75 59 74 59 81 / 10 10 40 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 60 73 60 80 / 10 10 50 30 20
DALLAS, TX 74 62 74 62 78 / 10 20 50 30 10
TERRELL, TX 73 60 73 61 80 / 10 20 60 50 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 61 72 62 80 / 20 30 70 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 71 60 71 60 77 / 30 40 80 40 20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/