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SE Texas Weather
06-20-2011, 09:53 AM
Post: #211
SE Texas Weather
well maybe..maybe....wishcasting for rain this week..need something to put out all these fire blazing across SE Texas...

WOW!!!!!! :google:
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06-20-2011, 05:04 PM
Post: #212
SE Texas Weather
Streamer showers during the afternoon. Nothing heavy, or long term, but it is similar to real rain.
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06-21-2011, 05:57 AM
Post: #213
SE Texas Weather
The few showers we had yesterday yielded less than a tenth of an inch of rain. This morning, streamer showers and thunderstorms are already active and dropping some precipitation.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER ACROSS SE TX. AREA RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

BASED ON GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER IMAGERY...MAIN TROPICAL
MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE W GULF THROUGH W LA INTO THE
OZARKS. GPS MET PRECIP WATER DATA SHOWS 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND FROM GALVESTON TO LUFKIN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX AND SUPPORT SCT TSRA. POPS FOR
TODAY ARE ALIGNED FROM EAST TO WEST WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION ROOTED IN HIGHER MOISTURE OVER N TX SLIDING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT TIME. SHOULD THIS PAN
OUT...WOULD NEED HIGHER POPS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN IN
DROUGHT...FORECAST WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH KEEPING
POPS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST.

RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST BUT WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 50/60 PERCENT RANGE. AGAIN THE 60 POPS ARE ALIGN
WHERE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF
SE TX AND ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO TO BE
ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...GFS MORE SO THAN THE NAM.
POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY SET UP WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE CONVERGENCE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM DRIES THE
AREA MORE THAN THE GFS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MORE OVER THE GULF.
THINK THERE WILL STILL BE SCT TO WIDESPREAD TSRA ON WED WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LOW NOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL LAG BACK THROUGH C TX. THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA WILL ALSO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THURSDAY THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE BAJA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS TX. KEPT 20/30/40
POPS FOR THU WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS. BY FRI PRECIP WATER DROPS TO 1.5-1.7 SO KEPT 20
POPS ALONG THE COAST WHERE HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY
INITIATE A STORM. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TX SO
EXPECTING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE.
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06-22-2011, 05:31 AM
Post: #214
SE Texas Weather
Yesterday's rain brought accumulations of a trace to over 1 inch. Far eastern areas received more rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE SE INTO SE TX. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM THE
STORMS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO OUT RUN UPDRAFTS CUTTING THEM OFF
FROM SFC BASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE NOW PRIMARILY
ELEVATED IN NATURE WHICH HAS DECREASED THE SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 537 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN GENERAL...POSSIBLY MORE
WHERE THERE ARE STORM MERGERS FROM CELLS PUSHING INTO THE LINE
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER BURLESON COUNTY WHERE
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING FOR TODAY AS THIS LINE
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE HOUSTON AREA IN
ANOTHER 3-5 HRS BUT IT COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH INITIATION ALONG ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA WITH GPS MET PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.9-2.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION AND COULD GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA TO FORM WITH ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WHICH WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVED.
FORECAST WILL KEEP 60 POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY
WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
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06-23-2011, 05:57 AM
Post: #215
SE Texas Weather
There's a large band of showers off the coast. In the last hour, a line of showers has developed along IH 10, which are showing healthy radar returns. I'm thinking this band of showers will remain for hours and the showers will be stronger after daytime heating boosts development.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MOST EVERYONE IN SE TX IS EXHALING A SIGH OF RELIEF FROM THE
DROUGHT WITH YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. MOST AREAS HAD A SOLID 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH WHILE NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER STILL HELPS
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LATEST
DROUGHT INDICATORS PROBABLY WILL NOT REFLECT THE IMPACT OF THE
RAINFALL BUT EXPECT TO SEE A LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
DROUGHT MONITOR NEXT WEEK. KBDI NUMBERS WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEARING...MIDWAY AND DYER FIRES HAVE
ALL SEEN SIGNIFICANT CONTAINMENT WITH THE HELP OF THE RAINFALL
BUT THERE ARE STILL HOT SPOTS AND FLARE UPS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OF PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
TAKES ON A SIMILAR ORIENTATION STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TX COAST
TOWARDS S LA. BOTH THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WELL OFF THE COAST TODAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE TODAY BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
WITH DAY TIME HEATING ALONG THE COAST. POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 20S
FROM S OF KCXO TO 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST BUT SHOULD DO SO THROUGH FRI. MAIN
TROPICAL MOISTURE RIVER WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF WITH DRYING
INLAND. PRECIP WATER DROP TO 1.5 INCHES INLAND AND WILL LIMIT
POPS TO THE COAST ON FRI WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE N BAJA PENINSULA IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER TX OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE MID/UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE S PLAINS AND
MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE THEN BEGINS
TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE C PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. THE GFS TREND IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE.
THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ECMWF DOES AS WELL BUT
KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH AND MOVES IT INTO MEXICO. THE CANADIAN AND
GFS BRING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO THE TX COAST. THINK
THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK DOWN JUST YET SO WILL KEEP WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST HOT AND DRY AGAIN.
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07-05-2011, 01:44 PM
Post: #216
SE Texas Weather
Outflow of storms to the north is kicking up some convection. We might see some rain.
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07-06-2011, 05:59 AM
Post: #217
SE Texas Weather
Parts of Southeast Texas saw a trace, to 1/2 inch of rain yesterday. Mostly, it was hot and dry with only a threat of rain and the bigger threat was cloud to ground lightning. There was even a house fire due to a strike.

Weather wizards aren't calling for anything, but a 20%, or less, chance of rain over the next few days. Heating will be the only factor, so pop-up showers will be scattered, unless there's a hefty sea breeze front. There are a few showers off the coast of Southwest, Louisiana.
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07-06-2011, 06:52 AM
Post: #218
SE Texas Weather
Don't worry Jess, this U Low will start to move west by the weekend and give you guys some enhanced rain chances.

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07-08-2011, 06:24 AM
Post: #219
SE Texas Weather
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED
SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES DO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING US IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME INLAND
AREAS NEARING 100 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE
LIMITED TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 38
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07-11-2011, 05:14 AM
Post: #220
SE Texas Weather
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY AGAIN THIS
MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGHER PW`S CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
MID WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE STATE. THE RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE TO APPROACH THE STATE AGAIN FROM THE EAST.
MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 38

&&
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