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The "Long Ranger"
11-04-2004, 06:18 PM
Post: #1
The "Long Ranger"
In these type of posts I will outline current trends and observations that will be observed about 15 days.
Signs indicative of Winter...
Today we have record breaking snow in the northeast, particulary Maine and up-state Vermont were some snowfall amounts tipped over 6 inches! Yesterday I heard all this conterversy that their would be no snow, yeah right! When you have that type of artic air in place over Canada and downstream blocking, one of these days you have to get some major trof amplifaction to use the air. Tommorrow the big thing will be wind, some places will have gusts up to 50 mph, if the atmosphere has a parallel wind field sets up just right. I feel it will, and most, if not all the tree's will be stripped of their foliage.
Winter is pulsing, but hasn't just come yet and stayed as excepted but it will soon. Shortwave length's are observed throughtout the world, allowing this type of weather to spill out. The next 15 days in the east will be much cooler and wetter then October by far, with some measurable snow sticking to the ground all the way down to about NJ. The next cold outbreak will be for the mid-west and the deep south were record low temperatures will be observed. This will happen as a strong high pressure system will set up in the east and help the cold advection boundary that will be setting up as a ULL combines with a trof, similarly like the last system.
El nino can't make up it's mind and is a real pain in the neck, as it creates a more pronounced jet and can mix things up. I don't think it will get anywhere as for this winter but once spring comes around, it's a whole diffferent story. The water in the Gulf of Alaska is nice and warm, and is breeding some nasty storms that will later on provide some snow for the east. PNA can't really get above positive, and NAO is generally negative also...so not much there. Teleconnection, nothing really to talk about there; ridge is still holding it's ground over Japan and it's starting to loss it's accuracy because of the weak SOI signal. Canadian Ensembles are really going crazy with this polar air outbreak maybe it will, maybe it won't tough one to call because of this whole wind field allignment thing but we'll see. A little cold weather never hurt anyone, so that's it for now; possibly snow storm in the east the 20th of November and much cooler and wetter for the reaminder of the month.
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11-04-2004, 07:27 PM (This post was last modified: 11-04-2004 07:36 PM by LI Phil.)
Post: #2
The "Long Ranger"
Keith,

50+ MPH winds and all the foliage stripped from our trees? Wherever did you hear that?:wink:


Cheers,

LI Phil
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11-05-2004, 08:03 PM
Post: #3
The "Long Ranger"
I made it up, and got some info from some models and private organizations. Good to see someone posting, especially a person from Long Island...
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11-05-2004, 08:05 PM
Post: #4
The "Long Ranger"
What do you make of the GFS suite? SNOW on LI next Thursday/Friday? What's up with that?
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11-05-2004, 08:29 PM
Post: #5
The "Long Ranger"
I think it may be more of a freezing rain event as the feature has some tropical orgins. I indicated that the pattern with the PNA and NAO supports these systems that ride up the coast. The GFS is making a mistake trying to literally get rid of the entrained heat in the area between Puerto Rico and Bermuda, thus "messsing" up the whole entire output. I would watch out if I had interests in the OB area and the New England coast, could be quite a storm.
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11-05-2004, 09:12 PM
Post: #6
The "Long Ranger"
Thanks Keith...no matter what happens, I think we can agree we're in for some nasty weather Thurs-Sat...:ooo:
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11-06-2004, 12:14 PM
Post: #7
The "Long Ranger"
It snowed up here (north of Toronto) Thursday night, but was gone by mid morning, Friday wasnt too bad, cold and damp, but no snow, and now Sat. its sunny out, gotta love the fall I guess;-)
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