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Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
02-09-2007, 09:13 PM (This post was last modified: 02-09-2007 09:15 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC312 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-100430-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA​...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTE​R...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY312 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK...A STORM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPING OFF THESOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY AFFECT NORTHERNAND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND...EASTERNWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.SNOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAYNIGHT. AT THIS POINT TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FORHEAVY SNOW AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEMWILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THEPOSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT ISTOO EARLY TO FORECAST SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...STAY TUNEDTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FORTHE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT.$$STRONG

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02-09-2007, 09:17 PM
Post: #2
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Cntrl Plains To Oh Vly/appalachians/mid-atl...
The Srn Stream Upper Dynamics Over The Interior West On Sun Will
Eject Out Into The Central/srn Plains And Surface Low Pressure
Will Begin To Organize Near The Lwr Ms Vly. The Model Guidance
Concerning The Details And Evolution Of This Winter System Shows
Tremendous Spread And Uncertainty With Absolutely No Agreement.
This Includes The 12z Nam/sref Mean/gfs/ukmet And Hi Res Ecmwf...
Meaning Moist Active Swrly Flow/srn Branch Will Overrun Into An
Area Of Sharp Thermal Contrast And Arctic Air. Strong Moisture
Return And Transport From The Gulf Of Mexico Will Begin Early In
The Fcst Period Producing Light Overrunning Frozen Precip Across
The Central Plains/mid Ms Vly. The Waa At 700mb Into The Cold
Sector Should Slowly Expand And Enhance The Precip Shield
Downstream Into The Oh Vly And Appalachians/mid-atl. However...
The Critical Thermal Profiles Are All Over The Place Due To The
Model Uncertainty. Hpc Followed The Gfs For Verbatim And A Streak
Of Light To Mdt Snowfall/icing From Ne/ks To Va/md.

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02-10-2007, 08:56 AM
Post: #3
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
..
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02-10-2007, 08:57 AM
Post: #4
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore Md/washington Dc
447 Am Est Sat Feb 10 2007


Winter Storm Outlook...

A Storm Coming Out Of The Southern Plains And Developing Off The
Southeast Coast Of The United States Will Likely Affect Northern
And Central Virginia...central And Western Maryland...eastern
West Virginia...and The District Of Columbia Early Next Week.

Snow May Begin As Early As Monday...continuing Through Tuesday
Night. At This Point Tuesday Looks To Have The Best Potential For
Heavy Snow As The Storm Intensifies Off The Coast. This System
Will Need To Be Closely Monitored Through The Remainder Of The Weekend
For The Possibility Of A Significant Storm Early Next Week.
Although It Is Too Early To Forecast Specific Snowfall
Accumulations...stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio Or Your Local
Media Through The Weekend For The Latest Information On This
Potential Winter Event.

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02-10-2007, 08:57 AM (This post was last modified: 02-10-2007 08:59 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #5
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
..

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]


We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust our sails



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02-10-2007, 08:59 AM
Post: #6
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis In
544 Am Est Sat Feb 10 2007


Inz021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-070>072-111100-
Carroll-warren-tippecanoe-clinton-howard-fountain-montgomery-
Boone-tipton-hamilton-madison-delaware-randolph-vermillion-parke-
Putnam-hendricks-marion-han****-henry-vigo-clay-owen-morgan-
Johnson-shelby-rush-sullivan-greene-monroe-brown-bartholomew-
Decatur-lawrence-jackson-jennings-
544 Am Est Sat Feb 10 2007



This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Central Indiana.
.day One...today And Tonight.
Wind Chill Values Of Zero To 10 Below Zero Are Expected Through
The Midday Hours Of Today.
.days Two Through Seven...sunday Through Friday.
Accumulating Snowfall Is Possible From Sunday Night Into Tuesday.
Present Indications Suggest The Potential For Several Inches Of
Snow.

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]


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02-10-2007, 09:08 AM
Post: #7
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
[Image: CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif]

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02-10-2007, 12:11 PM
Post: #8
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
GFS 120 Hr 12Z

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02-10-2007, 05:40 PM
Post: #9
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Hazardous Weather Outlook...updated
National Weather Service Baltimore Md/washington Dc
303 Pm Est Sat Feb 10 2007


Anz530>537-dcz001-mdz003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
Vaz021-025>031-036>042-050>057-wvz050>055-501>504-111015-
Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island Md-
Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point Md-
Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach Md-
Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point Md-
Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point Md To Smith Point Va-
Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head Md-
Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island Md-
Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island Md To Smith Point Va-
District Of Columbia-washington-frederick Md-carroll-
Northern Baltimore-harford-montgomery-howard-southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-anne Arundel-charles-st. Marys-calvert-
Extreme Western Allegany-central And Eastern Allegany-highland-
Augusta-rockingham-shenandoah-frederick Va-page-warren-clarke-
Nelson-albemarle-greene-madison-rappahannock-fauquier-loudoun-
Orange-culpeper-prince William/manassas/manassas Park-fairfax-
Arlington/falls Church/alexandria-stafford-spotsylvania-
King George-hampshire-morgan-berkeley-jefferson-pendleton-hardy-
Western Grant-eastern Grant-western Mineral-eastern Mineral-


303 Pm Est Sat Feb 10 2007
This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Maryland West Of The
Eastern Shore Including The Chesapeake Bay And East Of Garrett
County...eastern West Virginia...northern And Central Virginia...
Washington Dc And The Tidal Potomac River.



.day One...this Afternoon And Tonight
A Small Craft Advisory Is In Effect Until This Evening For The
Tidal Potomac And Maryland Portion Of The Chesapeake Bay.
.days Two Through Seven...sunday Through Friday
A Storm Coming Out Of The Southern Plains And Developing Off The
Southeast Coast Of The United States Will Likely Affect The Region
Early Next Week. Snow May Begin As Early As Monday Afternoon...
Continuing Through Tuesday Night. At This Point Tuesday And
Tuesday Night Looks To Have The Best Potential For Heavy Snow...
As The Storm Intensifies Off The Coast. This System Will Need To
Be Closely Monitored Through The Remainder Of The Weekend For The
Possibility Of A Significant Storm Early Next Week. Although It Is
Too Early To Forecast Specific Snowfall Accumulations...stay Alert
Through The Weekend For The Latest On This Potential Winter Event.
During And After The Storm...small Craft Advisory Conditions Are
Expected Tuesday Through Thursday For The Tidal Potomac And
Maryland Portion Of The Chesapeake Bay.
Very Cold Temperatures And Wind Chills Should Be Expected Tuesday
Night Through Thursday Morning.
.spotter Information Statement...
Spotter Activation Is Not Anticipated Through Tonight.
$$

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]


We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust our sails



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02-10-2007, 05:43 PM
Post: #10
Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj
305 Pm Est Sat Feb 10 2007


Njz001-007>010-012-paz054-055-061-062-111100-
Sussex-warren-morris-hunterdon-somerset-middlesex-carbon-monroe-
Lehigh-northampton-
Including The Cities Of...newton...washington...morristown...
Flemington...somerville...new Brunswick...jim Thorpe...
Stroudsburg...allentown...bethlehem...easton

305 Pm Est Sat Feb 10 2007


...a Widespread Plowable Snowfall Possible Tuesday Into Wednesday...
A Cold Front Will Move Through The Area On Monday, Allowing Colder
Air To Settle Into The Area Thereafter. Meanwhile, An Area Of Low
Pressure Is Forecast To Develop Across The Central Plains Sunday
Night And Monday, Then Become More Organized As It Moves Into The
Tennessee Valley On Tuesday. A Secondary Low Pressure System Should
Form Off The North Carolina Coast Tuesday Evening, Then Move
Northeastward Wednesday Morning And Intensify.
As This Storm Tracks To Our South And East Tuesday Into Wednesday,
An Abundance Of Moisture Is Anticipated To Move Rather Close To The
Region. While The Exact Track And Timing Of The Storm Are Still Not
Certain, The Threat Of A Widespread Plowable Snowfall Is Possible.
However, A Shift North Or South Of The Storm Track Can Greatly
Impact The Amount Of Snowfall The Area Sees. As The Storm System
Strengthens Off The Mid Atlantic Coast Tuesday Night And Wednesday,
Winds Are Anticipated To Increase From The Northeast And North.
Stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio All Hazards Or Your Local Media
Outlet For The Latest Updates On This Developing Winter Storm
Potential As The Details Become More Clear.


$$
Dez001>004-mdz008-012-015-019-020-njz013>027-paz060-067>071-
111100-
New Castle-kent De-inland Sussex-delaware Beaches-cecil-kent Md-
Queen Anne`s-talbot-caroline-western Monmouth-eastern Monmouth-
Mercer-salem-gloucester-camden-northwestern Burlington-ocean-
Cumberland-atlantic-cape May-atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-coastal Ocean-southeastern Burlington-berks-
Chester-montgomery-bucks-delaware-philadelphia-
Including The Cities Of...wilmington...dover...georgetown...
Rehoboth Beach...elkton...chestertown...centreville...easton...
Denton...freehold...sandy Hook...trenton...pennsville...
Glassboro...camden...cherry Hill...moorestown...mount Holly...
Jackson...millville...hammonton...cape May Court House...
Ocean City...atlantic City...long Beach Island...
Wharton State Forest...reading...west Chester...norristown...
Doylestown...media


305 Pm Est Sat Feb 10 2007


...a Significant Winter Storm Threat Increasing For Tuesday Into
Wednesday...
A Cold Front Will Move Through The Area On Monday, Allowing Colder
Air To Settle Into The Area Thereafter. Meanwhile, An Area Of Low
Pressure Is Forecast To Develop Across The Central Plains Sunday
Night And Monday, Then Become More Organized As It Moves Into The
Tennessee Valley On Tuesday. A Secondary Low Pressure System Should
Form Off The North Carolina Coast Tuesday Evening, Then Move
Northeastward Wednesday Morning And Intensify.
As This Storm Tracks To Our South And East Tuesday Into Wednesday,
An Abundance Of Moisture Is Anticipated To Move Across Our Region.
As A Result, The First Widespread Significant Snowfall Is Quite
Possible. While The Exact Track And Timing Of The Storm Are Still
Not Certain, The Threat Of A Significant Winter Storm Is Increasing.
However, A Shift North Or South Of The Storm Track Can Impact The
Amount Of Snowfall The Area Sees. If Some Milder Air Works Its Way
Into Southern Delaware And Southeastern New Jersey, Then Mixed
Precipitation Could Occur. As The Storm System Strengthens Off The
Mid Atlantic Coast Tuesday Night And Wednesday, Winds Are
Anticipated To Increase From The Northeast And North. This Could
Have A Greater Impact, Especially For Coastal Locations.
Everyone Is Urged To Keep Updated On The Upcoming Increasing Threat
Of A Significant Winter Storm Early Next Week. Stay Tuned To Noaa
Weather Radio All Hazards Or Your Local Media Outlet For The
Latest Updates On This Developing Winter Storm As The Details
Become More Clear.

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]


We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust our sails



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