Winter weather thread 2/12/07-2/14/07

[Race2Beach]

Low Track

[Ares]

Wow... that goes right through Pittsburgh.... /bgsmile

[ROLLTIDE]

This looks like more of an ice event for DC


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
831 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELY UPDT THIS EVNG AS SATPIX MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FCST.
SUBSTANTIAL CLDCVR ACRS PA...W/ A 2ND AREA ACRS WVA SHWG SIGNS OF
DSPTG AS IT MVS E. WL DROP TEMPS A CPL SINCE ITS A MOCLR/DRY/NEARLY
CALM NGT.

NEEDED TO TOUCH UP MON FCST AS WELL TO MAINTAIN A SEAMLESS
TRANSITION. 18Z GDNC SHWG MOSTLY MID-HIGH CLDS TKNG THRU DAY. PCPN
REMAINS TO W/SW OF CWFA. NAM12 SOLN KEEPS QPF IN LWR-MID OHVLY.
FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...WL LEAVE MON POP/WX ALONE GIVEN LWR THAN
DESIRED CONFIDENCE...BUT STARTING TO HV DOUBTS. BGNG TO BELIEVE
THIS WL BE MORE OF A TUE-WED EVENT. MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
18Z GDNC CONTG TREND OF A MORE NLY/SLOWER TRACK OF UPCOMING LOW.
SYSTEM CONTS TO BE MOIST...BUT EXACTLY WHAT FORM THAT PCPN WL COME
IN SUBSTANTIALLY IN DOUBT. FEEL NELY SFC FLOW WL BE HARD TO
DISLODGE...BUT GOOD CHC THAT WARMTH WL COME IN ALOFT. TRACK OF H8
LOW PER 18Z RUNS NOW TO OUR N /OR ACRS NRN CNTYS/...ON WED MRNG.
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR A SNW FCST. BASED ON QPF ALONE...WATCH
PRUDENT. WE SHALL SEE WHAT THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS REVEAL.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1035 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007

...significant Snowstorm To Impact The Area Late Monday Night
Through Tuesday Night...

.a Low Pressure System Over The Southwest Part Of The United
States Will Move East To The Ohio Valley By Tuesday. Snow Will
Develop Monday Evening And Will Likely Become Heavy At Times Late
Monday Night Through Tuesday Evening. Strong Northeast Winds Will
Also Develop As The Low Moves Through The Region...and Arctic
High Pressure Moves Out Of Canada. This Will Result In Widespread
Blowing And Drifting Snow With Near Whiteout Conditions
Possible...making Travel Difficult. Travel Will Likely Be
Adversely Impacted On Many Major Transportation
Arteries...including Parts Of Interstate 69...65...75...and
94...indiana Toll Road And Ohio Turnpike...routes
6...24...27...30...31...33...and 127.

Current Forecast Amounts Will Range From 8 Inches Across Northern
Portions Of The Watch Area To A Foot Or More Of Snow In The
Southeast Part Of The Watch Area.

Inz003-004-miz077>081-121145-
/o.exa.kiwx.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t1200z/
La Porte-st. Joseph In-berrien-cass Mi-st. Joseph Mi-branch-
Hillsdale-
Including The Cities Of...michigan City...la Porte...south Bend...
Mishawaka...niles...benton Harbor...st. Joseph...buchanan...
Dowagiac...cassopolis...sturgis...three Rivers...coldwater...
Hillsdale
1035 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007 /935 Pm Cst Sun Feb 11 2007/

...winter Storm Watch In Effect From Monday Evening Through
Wednesday Morning...

The National Weather Service In Northern Indiana Has Issued A
Winter Storm Watch...which Is In Effect From Monday Evening
Through Wednesday Morning.

Snow Is Expected To Develop Monday Evening And Continue Through
Late Tuesday Night. The Snow May Be Heavy At Times...especially
Tuesday Into Tuesday Night. Total Snow Accumulations Through
Early Wednesday Morning Of 8 Inches Or More Are Expected. In
Addition... Brisk Northeast Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph With Gusts Up
To 40 Mph Will Cause Considerable Blowing And Drifting Snow...
Especially Tuesday Into Tuesday Night...with Whiteout Conditions
Possible At Times.

As This Event Unfolds...travel Is Expected To Become Increasingly
Difficult And Dangerous Across The Watch Area. Stay Tuned For
Later Updates As This Potentially Crippling Snow Storm Draws
Near.

$$

Inz026-027-032>034-ohz024-025-121145-
/o.ext.kiwx.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t1200z/
Wells-adams-grant-blackford-jay-van Wert-allen Oh-
Including The Cities Of...bluffton...ossian...decatur...berne...
Marion...hartford City...montpelier...portland...van Wert...
Delphos...lima
1035 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007

...winter Storm Watch Now In Effect From Monday Evening Through
Wednesday Morning...

The Winter Storm Watch Is Now In Effect From Monday Evening
Through Wednesday Morning.

Snow Is Expected To Develop Monday Evening And Continue Through
Late Tuesday Night. The Snow May Be Heavy At Times...especially
Tuesday Into Tuesday Night. Total Snow Accumulations Through
Early Wednesday Morning Of 12 Inches Or More Are Expected. In
Addition... Brisk Northeast Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph With Gusts Up
To 40 Mph Will Cause Considerable Blowing And Drifting Snow...
Especially Tuesday Into Tuesday Night...with Whiteout Conditions
Possible At Times Across Interstate 69 As Well As Many Outlying
Areas.

As This Event Unfolds...travel Is Expected To Become Increasingly
Difficult And Dangerous Across The Watch Area. Stay Tuned For
Later Updates As This Potentially Crippling Snow Storm Draws
Near.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Louisville Ky
1040 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007

...winter Storm Possible Monday Night And Tuesday...

.low Pressure Moving Across Southern Kentucky Is Expected To
Bring A Mix Of Snow...sleet And Freezing Rain Across Portions Of
South Central Indiana And Far Northern Kentucky. The Exact Track
Of This Low Will Determine The Type Of Precipitation. Should This
Low Pressure Track Farther South...the Precipitation Type Should
Be Predominately Snow. A Track Farther North Will Bring A Greater
Likelihood Of Freezing Rain Or Just Rain.

Inz077>079-kyz032-120900-
/o.con.klmk.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t0200z/
Washington In-scott In-jefferson In-trimble Ky-
Including The Cities Of...salem...scottsburg...madison...bedford
1040 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Monday Evening
Through Tuesday Evening...

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il
1003 Pm Cst Sun Feb 11 2007

...light Snow Now Falling Across Northern Illinois Overnight Will
Precede A Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm Expected To Affect
The Area Monday Night And Tuesday...

.a Weather Disturbance Tracking Across The Upper Midwest Will
Spread Snow Across Extreme Northern Illinois...as Well As
Adjacent Portions Of Iowa And Wisconsin Overnight And Early Monday.

Meanwhile...a More Significant Winter Storm Developing Over The
Southern Rockies Will Move Into The Southern Plains Monday. This
Storm Is Then Forecast To Move Northeastward To The Ohio Valley
Monday Night And Tuesday. Snow With This Second System Will
Overspread Northern Illinois And Northwest Indiana Monday
Night...with The Snow Tapering Off By Late Tuesday Afternoon.
Current Forecasts Place A Band Of Heavy Snow Across
Illinois...mainly South Of Interstate 80. Strong Northeast Winds
Accompanying This Storm Will Develop Late Monday Or Monday Night.

Ilz003>006-008-121215-
/o.con.klot.sn.y.0003.070212t0600z-070212t1800z/
Winnebago-boone-mchenry-lake-ogle-
Including The Cities Of...rockford...belvidere...crystal Lake...
Algonquin...lake In The Hills...mchenry...woodstock...cary...
Waukegan...buffalo Grove...north Chicago...highland Park...
Mundelein...gurnee...round Lake Beach...rochelle...oregon...
Mount Morris...byron...polo
1003 Pm Cst Sun Feb 11 2007

...snow Advisory Remains In Effect Until 12 Pm Cst Monday...

A Snow Advisory Remains In Effect Until 12 Pm Cst Monday.

A Weak Weather Disturbance Will Move Across The Upper Midwest
Overnight Tonight. Snow Associated With This System Has Moved Into
Northern Illinois And Some Light Snow Will Spread South And East
To The Interstate 80 Corridor. The Snow Is Expected To Taper Off
Monday Morning. Total Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Can Be
Expected...with Heaviest Accumulations Near The Wisconsin State
Line.

A Snow Advisory Means That Periods Of Snow Will Cause Primarily
Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Snow Covered Roads And Limited
Visibilities...and Use Caution While Driving.

$$

Ilz019>023-032-033-039-inz001-002-010-011-019-121215-
/o.con.klot.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t0000z/
La Salle-kendall-grundy-will-kankakee-livingston-iroquois-ford-
Lake-porter-newton-jasper-benton-
Including The Cities Of...ottawa...streator...peru...la Salle...
Mendota...marseilles...oswego...boulder Hill...yorkville...
Plano...morris...coal City...joliet...bolingbrook...kankakee...
Bourbonnais...bradley...pontiac...dwight...fairbury...watseka...
Gilman...onarga...paxton...gary...hammond...east Chicago...
Merrillville...portage...valparaiso...chesterton...kentland...
Morocco...goodland...brook...rensselaer...de Motte...fowler...
Oxford...boswell
1003 Pm Cst Sun Feb 11 2007 /1103 Pm Est Sun Feb 11 2007/

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Monday Evening
Through Tuesday Afternoon...

A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From Monday Evening
Through Tuesday Afternoon.

Snow Will Overspread Northern Illinois And Northwest Indiana Late
Monday Afternoon And Monday Evening. Current Computer Guidance
Places A Band Of Heavy Snow Across Illinois...with 6 To 9 Inches
Expected To Accumulate By Tuesday Afternoon...roughly South Of
Illinois Route 17 And Indiana Route 10. North Of This Area...
Snowfall Amounts Of 4 To 6 Inches Are Expected Along The
Interstate 80 Corridor.

Northeast Winds Will Steadily Increase Monday Afternoon With Wind
Gusts Of 30 To 40 Mph Expected Monday Night And Tuesday. With
Several Inches Of Powdery Snow On The Ground...and Significant
Amounts Of New Snow Forecast...these Winds Are Expected To
Further Hamper Travel Conditions By Producing Considerable
Blowing And Drifting Snow. Blizzard Conditions May Develop In
Open Areas Across The Watch Area By Tuesday Morning.

A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant
Snow And Blowing Snow That May Impact Travel. Continue To Monitor
The Latest Forecasts For Later Statements And Possible Warnings.
The Next Scheduled Statement On This Weather Situation Will Be
Issued Around 5 Am Monday Morning.

$$

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Indianapolis In
400 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007

...major Winter Storm To Bring Freezing Rain Sleet And Heavy Snow
Tonight And Tuesday...

.a Winter Storm Will Bring A Mixture Of Freezing Rain...sleet And
Snow To Central Indiana Late Monday Night Through Tuesday. At This
Time...it Appears That Mainly Snow Will Impact Areas North Of
Interstate 70 While Areas Along And South Of Interstate 70 Will See A
Mixture Of Freezing Rain...sleet And Snow. The Exact Track Of This
Storm Remains Uncertain And Any Shift In The Track Will Have A Large
Impact On The Amount And Type Of Precipitation Received Across
Central Indiana. We Urge Everyone To Monitor The Latest Forecasts
On This Developing Winter Storm.

Inz021-028>031-035>049-051>057-121700-
/o.upg.kind.ws.a.0001.070213t0000z-070214t0000z/
/o.new.kind.ws.w.0001.070213t0000z-070214t0000z/
Carroll-warren-tippecanoe-clinton-howard-fountain-montgomery-
Boone-tipton-hamilton-madison-delaware-randolph-vermillion-parke-
Putnam-hendricks-marion-han****-henry-vigo-clay-owen-morgan-
Johnson-shelby-rush-
Including The Cities Of...lafayette...frankfort...kokomo...
Crawfordsville...anderson...muncie...indianapolis...terre Haute...
Shelbyville
400 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007

...winter Storm Warning In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To 7 Pm
Est Tuesday...

The National Weather Service In Indianapolis Has Issued A Winter
Storm Warning...which Is In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To 7 Pm
Est Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect.

A Mixture Of Snow...sleet And Freezing Rain Will Overspread The
Area Tonight. Areas North Of Interstate 70 Should See Mainly Snow
Tonight And Tuesday. However Areas Along The I-70 Corridor And To
The South Will See A Mixture Of Snow And Sleet Turn To Freezing
Rain And Sleet Late Tonight Into Tuesday Morning.

Dangerous Ice Accumulations Around One Quarter To One Half Inch
Appear Possible Along And South Of The I-70 Corridor Late Tonight
Into Tuesday. This Includes The Indianapolis Metro Area. The
Mixture Of Freezing Rain And Sleet Should Gradually Turn To Snow
Tuesday Afternoon.

Meanwhile, Heavy Snow Still Appears Likely Especially Tuesday. The
Heaviest Snow Will Occur Northwest Of A Crawfordsville To Anderson
Line Where Amounts In Excess Of 8 Inches Can Be Expected.

The Track Of The Storm Is Still Not Certain...and Any Shift In
The Track May Have A Large Impact On The Amount And Type Of
Precipitation Received Across Central Indiana.

A Winter Storm Warning Means Significant Amounts Of Snow...
Sleet...and Ice Are Expected Or Occurring. Strong Winds Are Also
Possible. This Will Make Travel Very Hazardous Or Impossible.

$$

[Race2Beach]

Sullivan-greene-monroe-brown-bartholomew-decatur-knox-daviess-
Martin-lawrence-jackson-jennings-
Including The Cities Of...bloomington...columbus...vincennes...
Bedford...seymour
400 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007 /300 Am Cst Mon Feb 12 2007/

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through
Tuesday Evening...

The Potential For Freezing Rain Still Exists Tonight Into Early
Tuesday. The Exact Air Temperatures Tonight Will Be Critical In
Determining Whether Areas Receive Ice Accumulations Or Not.

The Track Of The Storm Is Still Not Certain...and Any Shift In
The Track May Have A Large Impact On The Amount And Type Of
Precipitation Received Across Central Indiana.

A Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant
Snow...sleet...or Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel.
Continue To Monitor The Latest Forecasts.

[Race2Beach]

Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
346 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007

...major Snowstorm To Impact The Area Monday Night Through
Tuesday Night...

.a Low Pressure System Moving Into The Southern Plains This
Morning Will Lift Northeast Through The Ohio Valley On Tuesday.
This System Will Cause Snow To Overspread The Area From The
Southwest On Monday Night And Tuesday Morning And Continue Until
Tuesday Night. The Snow Will Likely Be Heavy At Times. Strong
Northeast Winds Will Also Develop As The Low Moves Through The
Region. This Will Result In Areas Of Blowing And Drifting Snow
With Near Whiteout Conditions And Some Impassable Roads Possible. Travel
Will Likely Be Adversely Impacted On Many Major Transportation
Arteries... Including Parts Of Interstate 69... 65... 75... 80...
90... And 94... And Routes 6... 24... 27... 30... 31... 33... And
127.

Current Forecast Amounts Will Range From 8 Inches Across Northern
Portions Of The Watch Area To A Foot Or More Of Snow Along And
South Of Route 30.

Miz077>081-121700-
/o.ext.kiwx.ws.a.0002.070213t0600z-070214t1200z/
Berrien-cass Mi-st. Joseph Mi-branch-hillsdale-
Including The Cities Of...niles...benton Harbor...st. Joseph...
Buchanan...dowagiac...cassopolis...sturgis...three Rivers...
Coldwater...hillsdale
346 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007

...winter Storm Watch Now In Effect From Late Tonight Through
Wednesday Morning...

The Winter Storm Watch Is Now In Effect From Late Tonight Through
Wednesday Morning.

Snow Is Expected To Develop By Tuesday Morning And Be Heavy At
Times Tuesday And Tuesday Night. Total Snow Accumulations Through
Early Wednesday Morning Around 8 Inches Are Expected. In
Addition... Gusty Northeast Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph Will Cause
Considerable Blowing And Drifting Snow Tuesday Into Tuesday
Night...with Whiteout Conditions And Some Impassable Roads
Possible.

As This Event Unfolds...travel Is Expected To Become Increasingly
Difficult And Dangerous Across The Watch Area. Stay Tuned For
Later Updates As This Potentially Crippling Snow Storm Draws
Near.

$$

Inz026-027-032>034-ohz016-024-025-121700-
/o.con.kiwx.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t1200z/
Wells-adams-grant-blackford-jay-putnam-van Wert-allen Oh-
Including The Cities Of...bluffton...ossian...decatur...berne...
Marion...hartford City...montpelier...portland...ottawa...
Pandora...van Wert...delphos...lima
346 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through
Wednesday Morning...

A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through
Wednesday Morning.

Snow Is Expected To Develop Tonight And Continue Through Tuesday
Night. The Snow Will Be Heavy At Times. The Snow Is Expected To
Mix With Sleet Tuesday Afternoon. Total Snow Accumulations Through
Early Wednesday Morning Near 12 Inches Are Expected. In
Addition... Gusty Northeast Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph Will Cause
Considerable Blowing And Drifting Snow... Especially Tuesday Into
Tuesday Night...with Whiteout Conditions And Some Impassable Roads
Possible.

As This Event Unfolds...travel Is Expected To Become Increasingly
Difficult And Dangerous Across The Watch Area. Stay Tuned For
Later Updates As This Potentially Crippling Snow Storm Draws
Near.

$$

[Race2Beach]

Inz003>009-012>018-020-022>025-ohz001-002-004-005-015-121700-
/o.con.kiwx.ws.a.0002.070213t0000z-070214t1200z/
La Porte-st. Joseph In-elkhart-lagrange-steuben-noble-de Kalb-
Starke-pulaski-marshall-fulton In-kosciusko-whitley-allen In-
White-cass In-miami-wabash-huntington-williams-fulton Oh-defiance-
Henry-paulding-
Including The Cities Of...michigan City...la Porte...south Bend...
Mishawaka...elkhart...goshen...lagrange...topeka...angola...
Kendallville...ligonier...auburn...garrett...knox...
North Judson...winamac...francesville...plymouth...bremen...
Rochester...warsaw...winona Lake...columbia City...
South Whitley...fort Wayne...monticello...brookston...
Logansport...peru...wabash...north Manchester...huntington...
Bryan...montpelier...wauseon...archbold...defiance...napoleon...
Paulding...antwerp
346 Am Est Mon Feb 12 2007 /246 Am Cst Mon Feb 12 2007/

...winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through
Wednesday Morning...

A Winter Storm Watch Remains In Effect From This Evening Through
Wednesday Morning.

Snow Is Expected To Develop Tonight And Continue Through Tuesday
Night. The Snow Will Be Heavy At Times. Total Snow Accumulations
Through Early Wednesday Morning Of 8 To 12 Inches Are Expected
With Heaviest Amounts Along And South Of Route 30. In Addition...
Gusty Northeast Winds Of 20 To 30 Mph Will Cause Considerable
Blowing And Drifting Snow... Especially Tuesday And Tuesday
Night... With Whiteouts Conditions And Some Impassable Roads
Possible.

As This Event Unfolds...travel Is Expected To Become Increasingly
Difficult And Dangerous Across The Watch Area. Stay Tuned For
Later Updates As This Potentially Crippling Snow Storm Draws
Near.

$$