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Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
01-27-2007, 11:01 AM
Post: #11
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
take a look at the euro for next friday evening. There will have be some major tweaks in the forecast packages for the gulfcoast where they have 50's in the extended forecast

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01-27-2007, 11:22 AM
Post: #12
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
Well, the same Euro is not driving any cold massive High pressure to the gulfcoast by then, the core stays around the polar vortex, we need a very dense high pressure to form to drive it southward. We have to look at the models up to seven days only, they have been trying to push the Arctic airmass southward past their 7 days forecast for the past few days, and so far they keep pushing it back. I think that this will be one of those Arctic outbreaks that the record breaking core will stay closer to the polar vortex, Canada and northern US.
A 1029 MB surface high is not going to do the job by next Friday evening in Wyoming to drive the arctic air southward. The polar vortex seems that it will be in control, so that will mean only multiple quick shots rotating around it, southward and then quickly eastward.
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01-27-2007, 01:22 PM
Post: #13
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
yeah, we aren't getting any forecasts that put our highs below 40... looks like our low temps will be mid 20s the next 4-ish days...

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01-27-2007, 05:34 PM
Post: #14
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
hard Freeze Watch In Effect No. Of Interstate 10 From Midnight Sunday
Night Through Mon Morning.

.a Cold Front Will Move Across The Area Sun Afternoon. Behind The
Front.high Pressure With Its Origins In The Canadian Arctic Will
Move Across The Gulf Coast Sun Night. The Associated Light Winds
And Clearing Skies Will Allow Temps To Drop Rapidly After Sunset
On Sun Evening. Temps Will Likely Drop Below Freezing No. Of
Interstate 10 By 9 Or 10 Pm Sun Night.then Are Expected To Drop
Near 26 Degrees Or Below For Areas No. Of The Interstate Around
Midnight & Remain There For Five Or More Hrs Through Mon
Morning. Interior Areas Of Se Ms.southwest Al
And Nw Fl Could Potentially See Temps Fall Into
The Upper Teens & Low 20s. Stay Tuned For Later Statements &
Possible Warnings On This Potential Hard Freeze Situation

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01-27-2007, 11:14 PM (This post was last modified: 01-27-2007 11:46 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #15
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
Okay back to the winter weather Smile

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01-28-2007, 10:37 AM
Post: #16
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
i will have an updated post this evening but attm i've been
gone a few days so iam just getting caught up but it looks
like one of the coldest outbreaks we have seen in many
many years bringing with it a big mess over the southern
plains with ice and snow being a big concern by the end
of the week into next weekend.. updates this evening

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster
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01-28-2007, 02:56 PM
Post: #17
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
Mobile NWS

TUESDAY IS WHERE THINGS START TO DIVERGE. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLOWLY SWINGS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE US/MX BORDER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST AND ITS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE ENERGY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY PUSH TO CREATE A POSSIBLE
WINTER WX SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A
LOT...JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW PROBLEMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AM GOING TO KEEP THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS. THIS SYSTEM LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR COMING WEATHER.

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01-28-2007, 05:22 PM
Post: #18
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
Mobile NWS

BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
RETURN TO FCST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL LOOK CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING A COLD RAIN (POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX) LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL PUSH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FCST
AREA OUT OVER THE GULF...AND AS A RESULT WE ARE NOT CALLING FOR ANY
FROZEN PCPN AT THIS TIME. /12

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01-28-2007, 08:27 PM
Post: #19
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
just wondering, will this forecast work for Deep East Texas.. My hay supply is getting Short
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01-29-2007, 05:39 AM
Post: #20
Arctic Outbreak 2007 main thread
N.o Nws

Some Concern Is Beginning For Tue Night Over The Northernmost
Portion Of The Area. The Sfc Low Stays Over The Gulf And Continues
To Pull In Continental Dry Cool Air At The Sfc. As Rain Falls
Through The Air...it Will Cause The Temp To Begin Falling Toward
The Dew Pt Temp Finally Arriving At The Wet Bulb(wick) Temp. The
Wick Temp In Southern Miss Will Be Around 32 Degrees And So There
Is A Possibility Of Some Light Freezing Rain Over This Area.
Confidence In This Is Not Very High Attm So Will Simply Mention It
In The Hwo This Morning. No Major Problems Are Expected With This
Event. If Any Freezing Ra Begins...it Will Be Very Light And Very
Little Accumulation Would Be Expected. Only Overpasses And Other
Non-sfc Based Items Would Be At Risk Of Any Icing.

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