Event for 1/12/07 - 1/18/07

[toddrasmuson]

Heavy Ice, Light Snow, Very Cold Weather
For The Weekend....


Models Still Offering Diffrent Views On What Is
Going To Take Place From Friday Through Early Next
Week, But Non The Less It Is Expected That Very Cold
Air With High Temps In The Teens And 20s Region Wide
Across The Southern Plains Region Can Be Expected
From Late Friday Through The Mid Part Of Next Week.

How Much Ice, Snow Is Still In Question Due To Model
Conflicts At The Moment, But I Expect Areas Of Inches
Of Ice Esp From Nc Ok Southward Into Parts Of N And Nw
Tx... As Noted On The Wso From Earlyer, May Need To Upgrade
Areas In The Mod Risk Area To High Risk In Later Outlooks..

People Within The Area Of The Mod And High Risk Areas
Should Start Getting Ready Today And Thursday For
This Possible Ice Storm And Stock Up On House Hold Items
Needed Make Sure The Car Has Plenty Of Gas And Is Winter
Prepared, That You Have Plenty Of Daily Stuff That You Need
To Go For Days Without Leaving Your Home As This Possibly
Could Last For Several Days...

Stay With Us Right Here Or Local Tv Or Radio For The Very Latest
Information On This Possible Winter Storm..

Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Updated Tonight At Around 10 Pm
Central Time...


Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[DesertBoots]

Todd, what do you feel will be the main precip type for areas 45 miles due west of Topeka? Freezing rain, sleet, or snow? With how strong this cold air seems to be, I cant see the amounts of freezing rain being advertised for this area to occur. I'm thinking about 7 inches when all said and done.

[toddrasmuson]

[attach]5686[/attach]

Wso
Fast Weather

2204 Pm Central 1.10.07

***winter Storm Outlook** For Friday Through Sunday...

*very High Risk* Extreem Nw Ok, Ern Ok Panhandle, Ne
Tx Panhandle, Extreem Sw Ks

*high Risk* For The Tx, Ok Panhandle,northern And
Central Ok, Nwrn Tx, Southern Ks

*mod Risk* For All Of The Tx Panhandle, Wrn,swrn, Central,
Sc And Ne Ok.. And Parts Of North, Nc Tx..

*low Risk* For Western Tx Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, Ern
Nm, Central, Extreem Ern Tx, Eastern Ok, Southern, Sw Mo
And Western, Central Ark And Extreem Nw La...
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Decided After Looking At More Runs To Upgrade
Extreem Nw Ok, Parts Of The Ok And Tx Panhandles To
A Very High Risk As Well As Parts Of Srn Ks (just Off
Our Coverage Map Area) Also Decided To Upgrade Parts
Of Nw Tx To A High Risk....

Current Thinking Is That Of Pre Talks That System
Is Still On Track For What Looks To Make This A
Major Ice Storm For Parts Of Ks/ok And Tx This
Upcoming Weekend. Persons Esp Within The Very
High, High And Moderate Risk Areas Need To Take
Precautions Now To Protect Life And Property
From This Possibly Deadly Ice Storm...

Further Upgrades May Be Needed In Future Outlooks
Esp Over Wrn,swrn Ok Into Nc Tx... Should Have A
Better Handle On This Whole Situation By This Time
Tomorrow

At This Time There Appears To Be Two Areas Of Concern
# 1 Extreem Nw Ok/ern And Ne Tx Panhandle And Ern Ok Panhandle
Into Sw, Sc Ks.... And The 2nd Area Being Into Sw, Wrn Ok Into Nw
Tx... This Could Change But At This Time These Two Areas Seem
To Be There The Larger Ice Accums Will Be Located


This Is Not In Stone By Any Means So Please Stay Tuned To Us
Or Local Tv Or Radio Or Noaa Weather Radio For The Very Latest
On This Possibly Major Ice Storm For 2007 And The Coldest Air
In Our Region In Years...

Further Updates Through Out The Day Tomorrow And
The Next Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Issued By 1030 Am
Central Time On Thursday...


Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

Frz Rain/sleet... Light To Mod Snow... Mostly Frz Rain/sleet
Thats Just A Quick Look I'm Mostly On Ok And Tx Forecast
But I Think Regional Wide Its Gonna Be A Major Ice Storm Event..
I Could Wind Up Being Wrong But All Signs Point That Way And
If You Do The Figures By Surgeing The Front Down Quicker Then
The Models It All Adds Up I Just Dont Buy The Models Hanging The
Front And Or Slowing It Down... But For The Answer I Say Mostly
Frz Rain/sleet In Your Region.. But Time Will Tell Tomorrow We Should All Have A Better Idea On This...

[toddrasmuson]

000
Fxus64 Koun 110353
Afdoun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman Ok
953 Pm Cst Wed Jan 10 2007

.update...
Focus Tonight Is On The Impending Arctic Outbreak And Ice Storm
Potential. Earlier Plan Was To Go With The 18z Nam12 Grids But
Move Them Forward About 6 Hours Thu Night Through Sat To Account
For An Expected Faster/stronger Arctic Intrusion. Should Have Just
Waited For The 0z Run... Which Is Nearly 24 Hrs Faster Than What
We Were Looking At On Yesterday`s 18z Run And Even Faster Than Our
Modified 18z Run. Current Plunge Of Cold Air Through Mt And The
Dakotas - Along With A Persisting Trend Of The Models To Speed Up
The Front - Are Strong Indications That Even The Fastest Of The
Current Model Runs Are Apt To Be Too Slow. Would Not Be Surprised
To See The Front To Near Or Se Of I-44 In Central/sw Ok Before
Daybreak Friday. With This In Mind... Sfc Temps In The Model
Grids Are Likely Too Warm Friday Afternoon-night And The Sfc
Freezing Line Will Be Farther S/se Than Currently Advertized.
Newly-arrived Met Mos Indicates Fropa At Okc By Or Around 12z
Fri... And Temps Falling To Below 32 By 21z. This Is A Serious
Concern Given The Model Qpf... Which Spreads Widespread 0.5 To 1
Inch Amounts E/ne Across A Wide Swath Through The Middle Of The
Cwa During The Day. Nam Qpf Has Good Support From The Ngm. 00z Gfs
Not Yet In. Nam Also Intcates A Second Round Of Significant Precip
Streaking Ne Across Much The Same Area Late Sat Night.

Bottom Line Is Turning Colder Faster Thu Night Into Fri... And
Freezing Precip Is Imminent. Details Remain Uncertain Regarding
Timing/location And Specific Amounts... But Freezing Rain Looks By
Far To Be The Primary Winter Precip Type. The Potential Exists For
A Significant Ice Storm Over Parts Of The Area Beginning As Early As
Friday And Continuing As Multiple Waves Into Saturday Night. Winter
Storm Watches Will Likely Be Needed As Early As The Early-morning
Package Tomorrow Morning... Most Likely Near And/or N Of The I-44
Corridor.

&&

$$

24/06

[toddrasmuson]

[attach]5687[/attach]

As Noted On The Graphic Have Put The Front Way Ahead
Of Models As We Feel As Nws Oun This Front Will Surge
S As It Makes Its Way Into Ok... Passing Okc Before Daybreak
Fri And Dfw By Midday Or Shortly There After.. Bringing
Wide Spread Regional Ice Problems By Fri Night From Nc Ok
To N Tx... But It Seems What Ive Been Talking About All Along
May Hold True And This Folks Could Be A Major Major Ice
Storm With The First Round Of Ice Fri Eve And Then A Couple
More Rounds During The Day Sat Into Sat Night...


More On This In The Morning

Note: Oun Is It Seems Is Gonna Issue A Winter Storm Watch
From Law To Okc Northwest In The Morning Package...

Todd Rasmuson
Fast Chief Forecaster

[toddrasmuson]

[ATTACH]5689[/ATTACH]



Outline Of General Area Of Poss Winter Storm Watch To Be
Issued Soon... Oun Is Going To Issue It For There Entire Cwa
Except Atoka,bryan Counties In Far Se Ok...

[toddrasmuson]

[attach]5690[/attach]

Special Edition Of Winter Storm Outlook***


***major Major Ice Storm Expected Over Parts Of Oklahoma,
Northern, Nwern Tx For This Upcoming Weekend***


Very High Risk For Parts Of Swrn, Sc, Central Ok And Nw
And Northern Tx.... Ice Accums Within This Area Could
Be Higher Then 2 Inches... Persons Within This Area Need
To Prepare Today And Early Tomorrow Before The System
Arrives And Be Prepared To Be Without Power Several Hrs
To Several Days To Possibly A Week... As This Could Be The
Worst Ice Storm In This Region In Years, Bringing With It
Some Of The Coldest Air In Years Also With It...

A Further More Detailed Winter Storm Outlook Will Be Issued
By 230 Today Central Time...


If Your In The Winter Storm Watch Area Or Very High,high Or Moderate Risk Areas Please Stay Tuned To Us Or Local Tv Or Radio
For The Very Latest On This Major Ice Storm For This Upcoming
Weekend...

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Norman Ok
509 Am Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...major Ice Storm Possible This Weekend...

.arctic Air...gulf Moisture Aloft...and A Strong Upper Level Storm
Will Combine To Produce Treacherous Winter Weather Conditions Over
The Southern Plains This Weekend.

Okz004>047-050-051-txz083>090-112200-
/o.new.koun.ws.a.0001.070112t1800z-070115t0000z/
Harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
Noble-roger Mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
Beckham-washita-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
Cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-
Tillman-comanche-stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-cotton-
Jefferson-carter-johnston-love-marshall-hardeman-foard-wilbarger-
Wichita-knox-baylor-archer-clay-
Including The Cities Of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
Ponca City...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry...
Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watonga...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk City...sayre...cordell...
Anadarko...yukon...el Reno...mustang...oklahoma City...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...seminole...
Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...frederick...
Lawton...duncan...pauls Valley...sulphur...ada...coalgate...
Walters...waurika...ardmore...tishomingo...marietta...madill...
Quanah...chillicothe...crowell...vernon...wichita Falls...
Munday...knox City...seymour...archer City...holliday...
Lakeside City...henrietta
509 Am Cst Thu Jan 11 2007

...winter Storm Watch In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through
Sunday Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued A Winter Storm
Watch...which Is In Effect From Friday Afternoon Through Sunday
Afternoon.

.temperatures Will Fall Below Freezing Rapidly On Friday Into
Friday Evening...at The Same Time That Moisture Increases Ahead Of
An Upper Level Storm. Although Sleet And Snow Will Be
Possible...most Of The Precipitation Will Fall As Light And
Occasionally Moderate Freezing Rain. Conditions Will Deteriorate
In Western North Texas Through Southern And Central Oklahoma As
Early As Friday Afternoon...lasting Through Friday Night. Lighter
Freezing Drizzle Is Expected In Northern And Western
Oklahoma During This Time...but Precipitation Will Become Heavier
Across The Entire Region Again Saturday Night Into Sunday As The
Main Upper Storm Comes Through The Area.

By Sunday Evening...ice Accumulations May Range From A Quarter
Inch To Well Over One Inch. At This Time...the Heaviest
Accumulations Appear Likely Along And South Of The Interstate 44
Corridor From Wichita Falls Through Oklahoma City...including A
Large Part Of Southern Oklahoma.

Gusty Winds Will Also Bring Bitterly Cold Wind Chills And The
Possibility For Downed Trees And Power Lines...leading To Power
Outages.

This Winter Storm Watch Means There Is A Potential For Significant
Ice Accumulations That May Impact Travel And Power. Continue To
Monitor The Latest Forecasts.

$$

[toddrasmuson]

The risk of a significant ice storm continues to increase. Freezing temperatures will reach I-44 (including the okc metro area) by approximately 8 to 9 a.m tomorrow morning! I believe attm it would be wise on nws fwd
to issue a winter storm watch for the dfw metroplex as this front is gonna
surge south and the dallas-fortworth metroplex looks to also be a target by
early to midday sat into sunday eve with a inch or so of ice poss in the dfw
area... heavyest appears like it will be either side of i-44 n or s in ok.. from lawton to okc either side with areas of 2+ inches of ice...


I will have more through out the afternoon its gonna be a long
one this is gonna be a MAJOR MAJOR weather event no doubts
about it for portions of ok and tx with likely regional wide power outages
and down trees being a big concern by sun...

WSO WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 CENTRAL

Todd Rasmuson
FAST Chief Forecaster