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TD Ernesto main thread
08-22-2006, 01:25 PM (This post was last modified: 09-01-2006 05:09 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
TD Ernesto main thread
Tropical Storm Ernesto-latest forecast, satellites & models

Link to T.S. Ernesto-Public Advisory

Link to T.S. Ernesto-NHC Discussion

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[Image: vis.jpg]
[Image: avn.jpg]
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[Image: at200605_model.gif]
[Image: storm_05.gif]

From
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com
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SST
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New stuff from LSU
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurric...6/ERNESTO/
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HCW radar. Will be uploading images to FLHURRICANE this evening


animated radar added
http://www.flhurricane.com

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?21

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These radars...

Charleston

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loo p=yes

Wilimington

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?p...d=ltx&loop=yes

Jacksonville

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?p...d=jax&loop=yes

Using the triangulation of these 3 radars...a rather consistent feature where the COC is has been evident for the past hour....

Also...

These satellites...

Hi Def IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

AVN

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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08-22-2006, 01:35 PM (This post was last modified: 08-25-2006 08:36 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #2
TD Ernesto main thread
I have a bad feeling about this one for some reason.

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08-22-2006, 01:40 PM
Post: #3
TD Ernesto main thread
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 22/18Z by the NHC

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08-22-2006, 02:09 PM
Post: #4
TD Ernesto main thread
The SHIPS model brings it to 50K in 5 days. So we need to watch this. May be another Ivan tring to sneek in

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08-22-2006, 02:23 PM
Post: #5
TD Ernesto main thread
Alabamaboy Wrote:The SHIPS model brings it to 50K in 5 days. So we need to watch this. May be another Ivan tring to sneek in

Preferable not

Erin August 2, 1995 Cat. 2

Opal October 4, 1995 Cat. 3

Ivan (the Terrible) September 15-16, 2004 Cat. 3

Dennis (the Menace) July 10, 2005 Cat. 3
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08-22-2006, 03:59 PM
Post: #6
TD Ernesto main thread
ROLLTIDE Wrote:I have a bad feeling about this one for some reason.

Oh man!!!:mad:
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08-22-2006, 04:15 PM
Post: #7
TD Ernesto main thread
I don't expect this one to do much of anything for the next 72 hours. After that it will have a chance .

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08-22-2006, 05:24 PM
Post: #8
TD Ernesto main thread
ROLLTIDE Wrote:I have a bad feeling about this one for some reason.

I do not like it when you say things like that. UURRGH. The Gulf States do NOT need this.
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08-22-2006, 05:39 PM
Post: #9
TD Ernesto main thread
OK, I finally I had a minute to look at the forecasted enviroment with this latest invest, for the next 4-5 days it should have very good upper level environment for this to develop, until it gets to the central Caribbean where it could get close enough to an upper level low-trough to feel some shear, but if the ULL gets out of the way quicker than expected it should have fairly good conditions past the 4-5 days, I don't see this system recorving like TD# 4, so it could very well be a threat to FL and the Gulf coast if it develops.
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08-22-2006, 06:10 PM
Post: #10
TD Ernesto main thread
Man, Ivan is like a bad word around here.
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