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2004 Winter Outlook
09-10-2004, 02:53 PM
Post: #1
2004 Winter Outlook
This winter I think will be a harsh one on the east coast again at least. There is a El nino brewing but it is not nearly as strong enough to affect the average temperature, it may not even come. The models have the jet stream coming back into the states by the 25, so that should be when we get our first cold shot, maybe even some mid-latitude cyclone devlopment. The icelandic lows are strenghting and that is actually a reason for more landfalling hits of hurricanes this year, and the past couple of years. In fact there is some correlation between the amount of landfalling hurricanes and the severity of the winter. Right now the NAO and the PNA are going negative or maybe already, but that usually means a warm time for september, it doesn't usually last that long. I will continue to update, back on this thread as the winter progresses.
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09-11-2004, 07:37 AM
Post: #2
2004 Winter Outlook
Most of the model guidance is suggesting that a very well devloped low is going to form in about 10 days, and follow on the east side of a trough. It will first dip down, into parts of the Northern states and then travel back up into Canada, hitting most of southern Canada. Looks like this could be our first shot of cool Canadian air in the north-west and upper mid-west but it should stay clear of the East Coast but will weaken the ridge in place, causing the next storm to come by to deleiver some cold but by then it's already October. The signs of Fall are very evident, leaves are falling, those damm squirrels are digging up your lawn, the geese are mirgrating, and it's beatiful out, enjoy it while it's here!
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09-11-2004, 09:38 PM
Post: #3
2004 Winter Outlook
any snow for the Va.Beach area? My area is by the NC boarder on the Atlantic coast.
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09-12-2004, 02:03 PM
Post: #4
2004 Winter Outlook
Most likely,especially if you get a nor'easter. I can't really give you the amount in inches but it could be a lot, then again you live near a beach. There have been a substanial amount of cold fronts this year, I am perdicting it to continue into the winter.
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09-13-2004, 04:21 PM
Post: #5
2004 Winter Outlook
I can tell you one thing. I predict SNOW for Alabama, with these hurricane related school closings this week.

Big Bird: That language you speak, you speak it quite well, sir.

Raymond Burr: Why thank you, that would be English.
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09-13-2004, 11:43 PM
Post: #6
2004 Winter Outlook
Snow, Snow, and more Snow for GA.. we are well overdue a nice nice snowstorm..
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09-18-2004, 04:43 PM
Post: #7
2004 Winter Outlook
The southeast I believe will be the coldest with temps 3 degrees below average. A lot of other factors come into play, such as geography, type of soil, pollution and much much more. But in general you should get the coldest weather, not the most snow. I think that will be the mid-west. My reasons well if the weak el nino does develop then it will feed it's moisture into the eastern central plains and with those polar air masses coming through, anything is possible. Once those air masses reach those moutains the Applachins Hills, the third force will come into play lift.
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09-19-2004, 04:53 PM
Post: #8
2004 Winter Outlook
I hear talk about possible snow in the Nebraska panhandle Monday night I think. Sad
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09-19-2004, 05:13 PM
Post: #9
2004 Winter Outlook
Yep, heard that too, over here in Long Island it got up to a mere 60 degrees and is suppose to drop down to 40.
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09-19-2004, 05:48 PM
Post: #10
2004 Winter Outlook
I have to agree with Jason. It does look like a bit of a harsh winter coming into play around here in the southeast, but hurricane season isn't even over yet. Great information Jason.
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