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2004 Winter Outlook
10-25-2004, 07:09 PM
Post: #31
2004 Winter Outlook
The cold air is building in the Siberia area and the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is holding it's ground. The mean ridge or the blocking in Canada is really retrograding, which I think by next week a bleeding SEasterly polar air outbreak will develop and continue and be brought into the vicinity of the mid-atlantic area as a trof will develop. Now the Gulf of Alaska water will teleconnect with a trof in the east and take the cold air and mix with much moister air coming in from the Altantic and develop some big city snows. NYC will probably earn around 45 inches of snow this year; that's on the low side...
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10-25-2004, 09:45 PM
Post: #32
2004 Winter Outlook
woohoo! I'm so excited! I hope the snow gets down here to Va.Beach!
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10-26-2004, 02:50 PM
Post: #33
2004 Winter Outlook
Did someone say


:snow
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10-26-2004, 08:05 PM
Post: #34
2004 Winter Outlook
The GFS has the system in the west coming in much further then anticapated, due to the strong jet under it, which will pull it out over the mid-west where there will be severe weather, hint hint. Anyway the postion of the ridge in the northeast is starting to dissolve as time passes, by the end of the model run a completely different pattern is observed. It also is trying to blow storms up and have crazy weather in places that won't have it, indicating the change.

May it be an el nino signal or not a warmer then normal water is observed off the coast of south America, most likely the cause of the jet of moisture shooting up into the Mid-west area. The water temperature profile is analogous to that of 2002, which had a slightly stronger SOI signal and higher water temps in the gulf of Alaska but very similar. The only thing that I'm not to sure about is the NAO. The water off the mid-atlantic coast is warmer then normal but not enough to keep the NAO positive for the winter.

We'll see but with this warmer then normal southeast it will cause lower pressures there which will inturn cause higher pressures over the northern mid-west allowing the colder air to build up in Canada and wait for a really big storm to use it...I'm sticking with my predictions.
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10-30-2004, 12:24 PM
Post: #35
2004 Winter Outlook
The NAO, is forecasted to pop it's head over the 0 line, which I think the Ensembles are making a mistake; too much heat transfer or not enough for that matter. The PNA is going positive, then it will go back negative indicative of some blocking. With those two things being positive, it will create the east coast as sort of a landfill for cold air, especially on the week of the 7th. Could have a chance for snow in New England with a possible storm coming down, but that's still far away. Keep you updated...
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11-08-2004, 10:38 PM
Post: #36
2004 Winter Outlook
cooooooooool. I hope for lots of snow here this winter.
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12-20-2004, 03:55 PM
Post: #37
2004 Winter Outlook
Going to start updating back on this thread, first day of winter, i tip my hat to that. Looks like a rough end to the month December will follow, with this next arctic outbreak and snow storm, what I am concerned about is a second wave forming out of the GOM, the 00Z runs of the GFS showed this, but now they're moving it off shore. Whatever may be the case, a second wave might follow, I'm not very sure where, but the timing seems to be around the Christmas time. With the cold high parked in the Northeast aloft and at surface, it would keep temps. in the mid-30's, with 850mb heights suffice to see snow. I will keep a tab on that storm but there are other early storms that need attention. I feel from my knowledge that the end of Feb. into March, will be the time period when all of the northeast receives their snow. As you can physically see, the trof in the means is located in the mid-west, interesting enough it is in retrogression and is slowly but surely moving back to the west. I do distinctly remember from mid to late November it was very wet, that was when the pattern was changing, it wasn't cold enough so all of the percip. fell as rain, but by the time Feb. rolls around the atmosphere will have sufficiently radiated enough that most - if not all percip falls as snow. I think my forecast is in line with that, next year I’ll be able to elaborate more on that, once I can get my graphing software to work! I'm about all typed out now, more later tonight!
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