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2004 Winter Outlook
09-19-2004, 09:39 PM
Post: #11
2004 Winter Outlook
what happens when remnants from a hurricane passes into an area with below freezing temps? A hurrizard? That I wanna see.


Woohoo! Maybe snow!
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09-19-2004, 09:40 PM
Post: #12
2004 Winter Outlook
well, my second sentence was in response to Jason's possible forecast for my area.
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09-20-2004, 02:11 PM
Post: #13
2004 Winter Outlook
Starfish,

If a hurricane were to pass over an area of very cold water, the system would lose it's tropical characterics, such as warm-core, banding features, and running from the power of latent heat not baroclinic. Also, it would start to develop fronts of cold air and warm air if it was located in a trough, otherwise it would die, to put it simply. Surface cyclones, not ULL's (upper level lows) form in the presence of decreased pressure and increased cloud cover. It's weird, hadely cell's lead to semi-permanent lows, because the interaction between temps, and divergence or convergence. These semi-permanent lows, form ULL's or troughs, not located at the surface, usually this is the maximum area of spin. The ULL's trigger surface troughs to form and so on. In the tropics there are no highs, because there is divergence aloft, the subtropical high or ridge is located in an area of convergence. I seem to have started to ramble, sorry. It's good info to know. Anyway back to winter.

The water profile temp. seems very simliar to that of 2002 year, in that year I believe we had some nor'easters because of the water temp. Right now it's still to soon, mostly because we haven't had our first artic outbreak, that will be coming soon. The pattern (trough in the west, ridge in the east) will support development of Nor'easters that ride up the coast. All you basically need is some cold artic air to mix with Gulf moist air, and the way you can get that is through a strong trough, and the 546 meter line in the gulf. Got to go!
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09-20-2004, 09:37 PM
Post: #14
2004 Winter Outlook
woohoo, thanks! What I really mean was remnants of a hurricane. I was just thinking all that moisture and ya know remnants still carry a bit of wind though it may be just a breeze. Just my wild thinking. Wink
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09-22-2004, 04:26 PM
Post: #15
2004 Winter Outlook
All you winter weather watchers I hope your are noticing the area of like 3 degree above normal in the Gulf of Alaska. That's going to form a very powerful RIL, this might even hit the west coast as a very strong gale. Regardless a very high amplitude trough coming into play might get our very first shot of colder air with this storm if it will stay as strong as I think. This also might impact the track of Lisa or Matt in the upcoming future. Keep a tab on this temp. anomaly and then overlap the 500 mb chart, a trough will start to form soon if this continues. Just an observation.
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09-27-2004, 09:44 PM
Post: #16
2004 Winter Outlook
any updates on possible winter weather?
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09-28-2004, 03:27 PM
Post: #17
2004 Winter Outlook
Actually yes. There is quite a cold blast of air going to come down, aritic air possibly even the first frost mainly for the upper central mid-west, eastern mid-west, New England and the mid-Atlantic states. Very cold weather, some places like south Canada will go down to -10 Celcius. Could also get some snow in Denver and all those area's that I metioned and also very nice weather. The first major frost of the season could be in early october, this winter is going to be something!
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09-28-2004, 10:20 PM
Post: #18
2004 Winter Outlook
thanks I hope LOTS of snow (anything more than a few inches will be a record) will hit here. Here's to <a href='http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb008' target='_blank'><img src='http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/16/16_4_74.gif' alt='Snow' border=0></a> !

I hope to build a <a href='http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb008' target='_blank'><img src='http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/8/8_2_75.gif' alt='Snowman' border=0></a> this winter. I keep meaning to build one every winter but either we get no or just not enough snow or I just forget to make one. I keep focusing too much on snowballs. Here if we get snow it's usually wet, so you probably could imagine what kind of snowballs that would make.


Also, we haven't had any school cancelled due to hurricanes so bring it on!
<a href='http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb008' target='_blank'><img src='http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/3/3_3_16.gif' alt='Snow Day' border=0></a>
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09-30-2004, 07:42 AM
Post: #19
2004 Winter Outlook
Let it snow, Let it snow!
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10-01-2004, 05:02 PM
Post: #20
2004 Winter Outlook
The first shot of cold air is going to bring 40 to 50's as high's, and the first major frost of the year. The second cold shot will reinforce it, and give some east coasters some cold weather. I wouldn't except any snow yet, but in about 2 weeks we could have a trough come down with a tap of cold artic air and get some moisture, might have some flurries then. Watch out for these fronts, they bring nasty weather, but very nice weather at that too. The models are saying that a very strong mid-latitiude cyclone could develop in the upcoming weaks, I have to take it for what it's worth; a grain of salt.
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