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Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
08-14-2004, 02:29 PM (This post was last modified: 08-16-2004 07:02 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
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08-14-2004, 05:10 PM
Post: #2
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
This one bears some watching. Since it's starting out at a low latitude, I have a feeling this one's headed to the Carribean and eventually the Gulf of Mexico. Will we luck out again and have a cold front come to our rescue?
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08-14-2004, 05:47 PM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2004 06:44 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #3
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
You roll, Rolltide. Fabulous maps. What does "SHIPS" stand for, and pardon my ignorance. scot949, your good luck is someone else's bad luck. It's Nature rolling the dice.
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08-14-2004, 06:39 PM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2004 06:44 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #4
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme




SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) is a statistical model that uses climatological, persistence and synoptic predictors (DeMaria and Kaplan 1997). The primary predictors include the difference between the maximum possible intensity (MPI) and the current intensity, the 850-200 hPa vertical shear of the horizontal wind, persistence (the previous 12 hr intensity change), the 200 hPa eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum, and the 200 hPa zonal wind and temperature within 1000 km of the storm center. The MPI is estimated from an empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and intensity (DeMaria and Kaplan 1994). The SSTs are obtained from the weekly analyses described by Reynolds and Smith (1994). The MPI and vertical shear are averaged along the storm track, where the forecast positions are obtained from the LBAR model. Until 1997, only the initial analysis of the aviation run of the MRF model was used to determine the synoptic parameters, due to the difficulty of separating the tropical cyclone and its environment during the forecast period. However, for the 1997 season, the model was generalized to include synoptic predictors from forecasts out to 48 hr. A special filter was developed to remove the vortex circulation from the MRF initial fields. These modified fields were then used to initialize a "no-physics" 11-level limited-area baroclinic model, with boundary forcing from the MRF forecast fields. Similar to SHIFOR, SHIPS was developed from cases where the storm track did not cross land. A version of SHIPS is available for the Atlantic and east Pacific.
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08-14-2004, 07:33 PM
Post: #5
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
I get the feeling Earl is going to be like Georges, Frederic, Elena, or Camille (no not that strong-just the track!) I just DO NOT see this Hurricane hitting in the EXACT same area as Charley. The chances of that happening in a weeks time is UNHEARD OF. I think this thing is going to end up anywhere between the Texas/Louisiana border to Apalachicola, FL. We have ANOTHER interesting and BUSY week ahead! This Hurricane season has ALREADY broken a record. There have been more named storms (5) within the first 14 days of August than there has EVER been!
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08-14-2004, 08:54 PM
Post: #6
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
I have to agree with SirCane. I don't see this thing taking the same path as Charley for a few reasons. There really isn't going to be a trough to kick the system upstream if models hold true. This looks like a classic Gulf storm IMO with a track of moving directly into the warm SST's and then the gradual turn towards the north from the LA coastline to the Panhandle of Florida. Let's see if I get a better handle on this one earlier than the NHC since Charley was picked up by the front earlier that expected. :icon_cry:

Still praying for those guys down there...
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08-14-2004, 09:19 PM (This post was last modified: 08-14-2004 09:26 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #7
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
Better sleep good while we can. Around Thursday and Friday this next week is going to be crazy! Conditions are going to be favorable for Earl to strengthen for the next several days. Good thing about Bonnie and Charley is that folks here around Pensacola were already stocking up on supplies just because of the threat. They may yet need them the way this season is looking.

This season has turned from dead to a MONSTER year. We'll be talking about this Hurricane season for years to come!
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08-14-2004, 09:22 PM
Post: #8
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/...IR4/20.jpg

Looks like Earl is looking better and better tonight !
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08-14-2004, 11:48 PM
Post: #9
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
Hi Brett.. I am in Louisiana and I really have a bad feeling about this storm. The New Orleans area has been so lucky lately and I just am not at all sure what this storm is about to do. Do you have any hints????
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08-14-2004, 11:57 PM
Post: #10
Earl Thread Now a Tropical Wave
Hello. Glad to have a Louisiana native on the boards. To be honest with you, it is wayyyyy too far out to tell any specifics, but I can almost guarentee you that the Gulf will have plenty of time to recover from Charley, as in SST's values and such. All in all, this doesn't look like a good situation for any of the Gulf Coastline. Personally I think it is going to make the northerly turn somewhere in the Central/West-Central Gulf. If this were to occur, you could be effected. I will not say that anyone is going to be effected until I am completely certain because we see how it kicked the Hurricane Center in the behind as far as forecasting days before landfall. Just put it this way, the New Orleans area has not had a direct hit from a hurricane that I can recall in many years. The city is under sea level and that would be bad, especially if a major hurricane charged into the region. I do have a feeling Earl will become major, but just keep your fingers crossed and keep an eye on it into the weekend. Looks to me like a landfall will take place somewhere along the coastline on Sunday or Monday of this coming week. Monitor the situation and I will be making posts on a regular basis here on HardcoreWeather.com. :icon_cool
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