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HURRICANE SALLY
09-13-2020, 07:59 AM (This post was last modified: 09-14-2020 04:52 PM by Alex.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE SALLY
EAS awoke everyone in my area this morning @ 4:30 am. I liked this storm better when it wasn't forecast to come over my dang house!!! Confused

[Image: 095214_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
Forecast Discussion
Quote:000
WTNT44 KNHC 130941 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs

A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this
morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57
kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and
pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is
set to 45 kt for this advisory.

While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global
models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves
under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing
conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate
of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this
might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt
higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised
by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid
intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid
inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model
can't be dismissed.

Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning.
The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted
westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the
northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-latitude
trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the
cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward.
After that time, the next trough should induce a faster
northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward
between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track
or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is
around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing
that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across
southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river
flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of
the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

Gonna be a busy day in SE LA.
I'm sure the 10,000 or so Laura evacuees in the greater NOLA area are having bigtime PTSD today!
Hang in there everyone!! Heart

For Louisianans looking for emergency information, here's the Twitter address for LA GOHSEP:

https://twitter.com/GOHSEP
Quote:


Plaquemines Parish

@PlaqGov

·13h

Mandatory Evacuation and Voluntary Evacuation will both be effective at 12 PM, Noon, Sunday, September 13, 2020

Scientia Est Potentia
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09-13-2020, 05:35 PM (This post was last modified: 09-13-2020 05:41 PM by Nolaken.)
Post: #2
RE: TS SALLY
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed
by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest
Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the
hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is
expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or
Mississippi coasts through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally
is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional
strengthening possible before the center nears the northern Gulf
Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the
warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting
in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday
into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16
inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast
Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall
will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major
flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and track into the
Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of
inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is
possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers in Mississippi and Alabama.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee,
northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and
minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday.
This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase
Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida
Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast
Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the
Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will
be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

The overall structure of Sally has not changed much since this
morning, but there has been a recent increase in convection near
and to the east of the center this afternoon. It appears that
the northwesterly shear is beginning to relax, and the increase in
convection near the center may be a harbinger of the expected
strengthening phase. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
that have been in the storm since the previous advisory have
reported a fairly stable central pressure of 996-998 mb, and recent
data from the NOAA aircraft still supports an initial intensity of
50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data have been helpful in analyzing the radius
of 34-kt winds, which has expand over the eastern semicircle.

Sally is forecast to move beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis
through Monday and the expected decrease in shear should allow the
storm to strengthen. Since Sally is forecast to decelerate on its
approach to the northern Gulf coast, the system still has at least
another 36 h to take advantage of the expected conducive
environmental conditions. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to call for Sally to become a hurricane on Monday, with
additional strengthening likely until landfall. The intensity
guidance has trended slightly lower this cycle, with the HMON model
now at the upper end of the guidance envelope. The reduction in the
statistical guidance is likely due to the fact that Sally has not
strengthened today and there is a persistence component to the
forecast from those models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies a little above the latest
HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Sally continues to
move west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm is
currently being steered around the southern portion of a mid-level
ridge to its northeast. Sally is forecast to reach the western
extent of the ridge on Monday, and a slower northwestward motion is
expected when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. The
steering currents are forecast to weaken further in a couple of days
as Sally rounds the western extent of the ridge and a slow northward
motion is expected during that time. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should begin to move somewhat faster toward the northeast as a
trough deepens to its west. As often occurs, there has been some
run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the
latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower
forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the
latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the
previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has
been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is
important not to focus too much on these small track changes and
to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to
extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a
bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the
center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional
adjustments to the track forecast are possible.

Regardless of Sally's exact landfall location and intensity, the
cyclone is expected to bring wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards
to a large part of the north-central Gulf Coast. In particular,
Sally's slow forward speed near the coast will exacerbate the storm
surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with
tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.

3. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.8N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 29.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 30.7N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 31.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 34.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

It's hard to tell if this latest shift is good or bad for NOLA. One way we get more rain, the other we get more wind. In any event it will be a non-boring next couple of days for us. It is a little disconcerting to have a near-bullseye on top of my house at 1pm Tuesday...

It looks like it is finally getting its act together...
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?...nitsst=Off
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09-14-2020, 05:07 PM
Post: #3
RE: HURRICANE SALLY
https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/13...3470810112

Quote:[Image: Eh54IYQWoAAg5O_?format=jpg&name=small]

99 mph gust to 117 mph at Petronius oil platform, elevation 174ft. #HurricaneSally2020 #lawx #mswx #alwx #flwx

AARoads
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09-15-2020, 05:39 AM
Post: #4
RE: HURRICANE SALLY
[Image: 095758_key_messages_sm.png]

Moving at 2 mph....thats going to be a lot of rain. Be safe
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09-16-2020, 12:11 AM (This post was last modified: 09-16-2020 12:55 AM by SevereWxEnthusiast.)
Post: #5
RE: HURRICANE SALLY
Radar shows an eye wall that's cleaning up it's act. Could get pretty dicy

new advisory - back to CAT 2 100mph winds

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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09-16-2020, 04:20 PM
Post: #6
RE: HURRICANE SALLY
Yikes

Hurricane Sally makes landfall: Part of Pensacola bridge collapses amid 30 inches of rain; 'catastrophic flooding' in Alabama, Florida


PENSACOLA, Fla. – Part of a bridge collapsed in Pensacola as 30 inches of rain and storm surge turned streets into white-capped rivers Wednesday after Hurricane Sally lurched ashore the Gulf Coast.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hurric...d=msedgntp
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10-05-2020, 11:42 AM
Post: #7
RE: HURRICANE SALLY
We lost half of our roof down on Ft Morgan and headed back down again to board up for the next one Sad Isn't 2020 great ?

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