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HURRICANE ISAIAS
07-28-2020, 07:51 AM (This post was last modified: 08-03-2020 09:42 PM by Alex.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE ISAIAS
A couple of days in on this latest tropical wave with potential. Gonzalo fizzled out rapidly two days ago while this one took its place further east.

Quote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Image: storm_92.gif]

There's people at Florida DOT already giving this a name and indicating it "coming our way". Talk about premature.

AARoads
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07-29-2020, 10:17 PM
Post: #2
RE: TS ISAIAS
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 no more, NHC finally upgraded it.

Quote:000
WTNT34 KNHC 300248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED
ees-ah-EE-ahs)...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 67.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning and has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 67.0 West. Isaias is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola on
Thursday and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely when the center moves over Hispaniola
with some strengthening expected by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3
to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.

Across the southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
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07-31-2020, 10:27 PM
Post: #3
RE: TS ISAIAS
Thanks for all you do!!!!!
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08-02-2020, 09:02 PM
Post: #4
RE: TS ISAIAS
Thanks for the update! What happened to this board? I thought there would be pages and pages of comments and analysis.
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08-03-2020, 08:54 AM
Post: #5
RE: TS ISAIAS
(08-02-2020 09:02 PM)RTDJ Wrote:  Thanks for the update! What happened to this board? I thought there would be pages and pages of comments and analysis.

I think this day and age the majority of people focus on social media for storms and weather in general, among other things that forums used to be the go to for. It's quite disappointing because you don't get the kind of comradery on a Facebook page or group that you got here and with forums in general.

AARoads
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08-03-2020, 09:45 PM
Post: #6
RE: HURRICANE ISAIAS
Strengthened to an 85 mph wind hurricane. About to make landfall around Shalotte and Fort Fisher.

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