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TS Gonzalo
07-21-2020, 06:39 AM (This post was last modified: 07-22-2020 09:37 PM by Alex.)
Post: #1
TS Gonzalo
Invest99L in the central Atlantic:

[Image: storm_99.gif]

Quote:2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

AARoads
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07-21-2020, 08:10 PM
Post: #2
RE: 99L Code Orange
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 40.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low
pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a
well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next
several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it
encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF,
GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their
track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and
the various consensus models.

The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low
by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry
air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and
the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging
off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a
compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55
kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models.
The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change
intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently
forecast.
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07-22-2020, 06:28 AM
Post: #3
RE: 99L Code Orange
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 42.4W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 42.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm today.


Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with
indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity
estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30
kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The
intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual
degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in
an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and
large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls
for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by
a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but
above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the
cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this
system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations
in intensity, both upward and downward.

The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A
well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The
official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally
westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods.
This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
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07-22-2020, 09:07 AM
Post: #4
RE: 99L Code Orange
TS Gonzalo


000
WTNT62 KNHC 221248
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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07-22-2020, 08:42 PM (This post was last modified: 07-22-2020 08:43 PM by Nolaken.)
Post: #5
RE: 99L Code Orange
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 45.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

Satellite imagery suggests that Gonzalo's intensification has
paused since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to show a
central dense overcast, and microwave imagery indicates a small
convective ring present under the overcast. However, the CDO has
become a bit ragged, and the other banding seen earlier has
dissipated. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
are in the 45-55 kt range, the the initial intensity remains a
possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/12. There is no change to the
track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the
storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 60
h or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is
expected. The new NHC forecast track is again little changed from
the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear
environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening,
possibly even rapidly, should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based
guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane. On the
other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast
the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry
air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery
suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest
of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises
between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in
36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF.
The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.
As noted before, the small size of this system makes it
susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward
and downward.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 9.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Image: 203419_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png]
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07-22-2020, 10:04 PM
Post: #6
RE: TS Gonzalo
[Image: storm_07.gif]

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07-23-2020, 06:29 AM
Post: #7
RE: TS Gonzalo
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a
well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the
east semi-circle. Cloud tops have once again cooled near the
surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt).
Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this
advisory.

No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there
still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3
while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea. Strengthening
is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and
the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus,
the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS. Beyond
mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to
the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate. It
should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it
susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward
and downward.

The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt.
The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving
within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this
high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster
forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected. Two distinct
model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist. The
European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone
moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and
dissipating in 5 days or less. The NCEP models, on the other hand,
show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion toward Hispaniola. The NHC forecast basically
down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the
TVCA consensus aid.

Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Barbados.


Key Messages

1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from
Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
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07-23-2020, 08:24 AM
Post: #8
RE: TS Gonzalo
Hurricane forecast? So the current wave of Saharan Dust is not going to impact it as much as anticipated to start?

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