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Tropical Storm Cristobal
06-01-2020, 09:03 AM (This post was last modified: 06-02-2020 12:39 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Tropical Storm Cristobal
What do you all think on intensity and landfall area
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06-01-2020, 03:46 PM (This post was last modified: 06-01-2020 03:48 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #2
RE: GOM Storm this week
Somewhere in LA main threat very heavy rain and 60mph winds

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06-01-2020, 03:52 PM
Post: #3
RE: TD#3 Gulf Of Mexico
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$

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06-01-2020, 10:10 PM
Post: #4
RE: TD#3 Gulf Of Mexico
000
WTNT43 KNHC 020234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico,
indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or
strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small
clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated
convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface
data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this
system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The
Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow
counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America
during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of
the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward
motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level
trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other
hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and
making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h,
followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a
second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at
around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and
trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in
showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the
Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast
of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous
advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3.

In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should
occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm
water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to
moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should
limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast
intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the
end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an
increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is
forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity
forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over
Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by
the GFS and ECMWF.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and
intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either
of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

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06-01-2020, 10:11 PM
Post: #5
RE: TD#3 Gulf Of Mexico
[Image: storm_03.gif]

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06-02-2020, 11:27 AM
Post: #6
RE: TD#3 Gulf Of Mexico
Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

Corrected time to reflect CDT

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM CDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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06-02-2020, 12:38 PM
Post: #7
Tropical Storm Cristobal
(06-02-2020 11:27 AM)cajun saint Wrote:  Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

Corrected time to reflect CDT

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM CDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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06-02-2020, 10:29 PM
Post: #8
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
10pm
Quote: 81
WTNT43 KNHC 030238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There
has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the
east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm
this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of
45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its
final pass through the center.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been
meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast
drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or
southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered
over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore
over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on
Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to
move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early
Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow
the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward
adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a
slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little
change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track
forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track
guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in
the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land
interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center
reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days.

Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before
Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on
Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters
land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental
conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less
aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected
consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of
the system after it interacts with land.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Brown

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06-03-2020, 08:27 AM
Post: #9
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
[b]7:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 3[/b]

Location: 18.8°N 92.1°W

Moving: SE at 3 mph

Min pressure: 994 mb

Max sustained: 60 mph

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06-03-2020, 09:00 PM
Post: #10
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
Man this one is messing with plans, we are in pigeon forge, tn with the motorhome, supposed to be coming back to houma, la on sunday afternoon
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