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Tropical Storm Cristobal
06-04-2020, 09:48 AM
Post: #11
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
10 am
Quote: 20
WTNT43 KNHC 041445
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

With the center remaining inland, Cristobal has continued to
weaken, and the cloud pattern is becoming disorganized. The
current intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and the
warnings for the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico have been
discontinued. Assuming that the center will emerge over the Gulf of
Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensification should begin by
tomorrow evening. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is not
expected to be very conducive for intensification, with moderate
southwesterly shear and some dry mid-level air. Not surprisingly,
the intensity guidance, such as HWRF and LGEM, are not very bullish
on strengthening. The official forecast remains a little above the
latest intensity model consensus. It should still be noted,
however, that there is some uncertainty as to the strength of
Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast due to
the limitations of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The cyclone continues to move slowly east-southeastward, or 120/3
kt. Over the next day or so, Cristobal is likely to move along a
partial cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre. By
tomorrow night, the system should have begun moving northward into
a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This generally northward
motion should continue until the center crosses the northern
Gulf coast. There have been no important changes to the NHC track
forecast, which is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus aids.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.

2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.6N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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06-05-2020, 11:01 AM
Post: #12
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
Tropical storm watches posted

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06-05-2020, 11:01 AM
Post: #13
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
Quote: 875
WTNT43 KNHC 051449
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system
is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images. A
large convective band has become better defined over the northern
and eastern portions of the circulation. However, central
convective features are still lacking. The current intensity
estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations.
Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal
this evening as the center moves back over water. Additional
intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this
should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear. The
official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous
advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model
consensus.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about
360/10 kt. For the next couple of days Cristobal should move
mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical
anticyclones. A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely
after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some
building of a ridge to the northeast. The official track forecast
is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is
expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches
the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge,
and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center
of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus
on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.


Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big
Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the
Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch
has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds
beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers
possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.0N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON COAST
72H 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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06-05-2020, 11:03 AM
Post: #14
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
We may do some live streaming from the coast in the next couple of days . Make sure you follow me on youtube Smile

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06-05-2020, 02:07 PM
Post: #15
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
(06-05-2020 11:03 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  We may do some live streaming from the coast in the next couple of days . Make sure you follow me on youtube Smile
what's your channel name?
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06-05-2020, 06:07 PM
Post: #16
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
A bit more interesting for New Orleans now. I am already tired of my phone going off.
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06-05-2020, 07:18 PM
Post: #17
RE: Tropical Storm Cristobal
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Can someone explain this to me. How can the storm be at 89.7 at 4pm and at 89.9 at 7 pm and be moving North at 10 degrees?
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