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TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
10-16-2019, 07:00 AM (This post was last modified: 10-18-2019 01:01 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
...
Quote: . A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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10-16-2019, 02:39 PM
Post: #2
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
opical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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10-16-2019, 02:40 PM
Post: #3
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
[Image: storm_96.gif]

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10-16-2019, 02:41 PM
Post: #4
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
Dylan Federico WTVM

[url=https://www.facebook.com/DylanFedericoWx/photos/a.663704627160183/1114101372120504/?type=3&__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARDo4X7hW2uvFbpJL4pCcGmxgMm64H2V6heXFr6-EpHjolnfOKpHaFKwNNdAp4YXOwDL91_jt0dbFTwODBybo3ysVcc-yDoAedWjSY2fZwLlvkoe3vs3utHs4bNfyIxbDkRygHa4cU5cDC97H3iBejBAsxyVqzUidvu7eVFstdHr​Myu8J0S5QzZHzVPGgiMZzQLaZVP7yJQf_r3ylC47wDAqnFh5fqn8W4ev6VlgZ6R0aEyf0KPR2JLKY1iQ​gEFfg7wM5-3xeoa0hQy4FslgvMIH3x7ggsasL8VB1RyfDWIXvopJ0Sfxej8WxwUHmB3q5BuBweax7m7CpdtYE_6_dl​fncUTR0OWS0nvxIfgcvQ9izKKznyeTPg&__tn__=-R][/url] · It’s now likely that a tropical system will form in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week.
WEDNESDAY PM THOUGHTS:

- A tropical system, hybrid in nature will likely develop Thursday
& Friday in the western Gulf, and race NE towards the north-central
Gulf Coast, with landfall being Saturday, with inclement weather
spreading into Georgia & the Carolinas on Sunday.


- Since the system will be weak, and hybrid in nature, the worst
weather will be EAST of the center. Those WEST of the center will be on
the dry side, and the weather will be quite nice. This will NOT become a
hurricane.
- It’s looking increasingly likely that the center
will pass SOUTH & EAST of New Orleans, meaning little to no impacts
for SE Louisiana, though areas near the mouth of the river would see
impacts.
- Those EAST of the center will see the worst
conditions. Residents from the Mississippi Gulf Coast to the big bend
area of Florida should prepare for “Tropical Storm Conditions” for
Saturday. This means wind gusts of 35-45MPH winds, heavy rain of 2-4”,
with isolated amounts of 6”, and coastal flooding.
-Heavy rain
threat will spread inland into Alabama & Georgia and the Carolinas
Saturday night into Sunday, and will be the main issue. Widespread
totals of 2-4 inches will be possible, causing minor flash flooding
problems. Though, with severe drought conditions ongoing, the rain will
be welcomed.
- Good news is this will be a very fast moving
system. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate but also rapidly improve as
it passes. Fast movement will limit flood & storm surge threat.
There’s still uncertainty as we don’t have a center to track yet, but
this is where we stand as of now.
Stay tuned as we iron out details!
-Dylan

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10-16-2019, 03:39 PM
Post: #5
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
James Spann

[/url] ·

THE
ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather in Alabama Saturday will be determined by a
tropical low moving inland from the Gulf. Here are the key points for
Saturday...
*Models have shifted a little eastward this morning
with the center of the low. The GFS (American) global model suggests
most of the rain will be over East and South Alabama late Friday night
and Saturday morning before moving into Georgia. This is the best case
scenario for the football game in Tuscaloosa Saturday night,
and Birmingham Saturday afternoon. However, the reliable European
global model still is slower, and more to the west, and shows rain for
most of the state Saturday and Saturday night.


*Models will continue to struggle with the tropical low until it gets a
well defined center, and becomes better organized, which should happen
by tomorrow. There is a chance it becomes Tropical Storm Nestor before
it moves inland. Heavy rain is expected to be the main threat one way or
another.
*We will continue to forecast a chance of rain
statewide Saturday and Saturday night, but adjustments will be made to
the placement, timing, and intensity of the rain as the tropical system
evolves. Keep an eye out for forecast changes.
*Sunday looks dry for most of the state; the high Saturday will be close to 70, and in the mid to upper 70s Sunday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn travels to Fayetteville, Arkansas to take on
the Razorbacks Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be cloudy at
times, and there is some risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm during
the game. Kickoff temperature near 64, rising into the upper 60s by the
second half.
Alabama will host Tennessee Saturday night at
Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (8:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be
cloudy, and some rain is possible during the game. Temperatures will be
in the upper 60s.
UAB hosts Old Dominion Saturday afternoon at
Legion Field in Birmingham (3:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly
cloudy, and rain could move in during the game. Kickoff temperature will
be near 70 degrees, falling back into the upper 60s by the final
whistle.
Jacksonville State hosts Southeast Missouri State
Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly cloudy; rain is
possible. Temperatures will fall from near 70 at kickoff, into the upper
60s by the fourth quarter.





[url=https://www.facebook.com/jamesspann/photos/a.133000720841/10157729350990842/?type=3&eid=ARCNoFpB5NOVMTMRlIiNAUoJiEnbeiJX0fsqK_98-YkTPZNEeP2aorrGucUsOk8svlE6JIa2k1Pm1AcO&__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARAHcSed4kpCEMrLkGPkQxFLg4nrUHh7PIdptBAb6GHuYHXPLXTUzGnJbChVhn​dZbVGNxNIRY3CY6lweQEWByu4qActWpuTrozsc2i4YVCDW5Dv0YxbcPL9fCjHW7h_H3ueilcGTIEHdGO​t5M3MiS25FhDOx213crhRtwbIvEhsCh06eN2QuvcMGXenDKUwcPpfy43sA5lGy7v8hZ5OYBT02B7lgpR​NB_77rKrCY20CQUoM5jMH-5-OivAixKqLytFdF9_y0uMjhijMJND4im1yjXrPdEKTtxl8Sve2o40Cf_R6xNx_7hk0eqdvMAdaQgwUxB8​L91Ds69vMJziFs0EU-NSiaWL_mDvwqxOWOZyEzGg&__tn__=EHH-R][Image: 72906278_10157729350995842_2910330209829...e=5E1BF11B]

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10-16-2019, 03:41 PM
Post: #6
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system



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10-16-2019, 07:00 PM
Post: #7
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
Local Mets here have been all over this as well.
Thankfully we got some rain last week and a few squalls this evening. September was 6 inches below normal in most areas around Tampa Bay.

AARoads
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10-17-2019, 06:54 AM
Post: #8
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system. For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

$$
Forecaster Beven

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10-17-2019, 06:55 AM
Post: #9
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system



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10-17-2019, 10:59 AM
Post: #10
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
000
WTNT31 KNHC 171456
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

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