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TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
10-17-2019, 10:59 AM
Post: #11
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
[Image: 145809_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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10-17-2019, 11:00 AM
Post: #12
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
000
WTNT41 KNHC 171503
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized. However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model
guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast
track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the
UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track
brings the system across the southeastern United States between
48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the
mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level
divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is
unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical
tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical
by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions
of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.
Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

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10-17-2019, 03:08 PM
Post: #13
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
[Image: storm_96.gif]

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10-17-2019, 03:41 PM
Post: #14
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system



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10-18-2019, 09:04 AM
Post: #15
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
Should be upgraded to Nester very soon !

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10-18-2019, 09:52 AM
Post: #16
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
Winds up to 60mph but still a PTC 16

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10-18-2019, 01:00 PM
Post: #17
RE: Much Needed Gulfcoast Rainfall Hybrid system
000
WTNT31 KNHC 181732
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

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10-18-2019, 01:47 PM
Post: #18
RE: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
[Image: storm_16.gif]

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10-18-2019, 04:31 PM
Post: #19
RE: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
Totally exposed low center to the west. Tons of convection to the east. The 2 to 4 inch area on the NHC rain forecast map has expanded accordingly.

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10-19-2019, 03:48 PM
Post: #20
RE: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
Not much wind during the main shield of rain through the overnight hours, but a good soaking at least. One reported tornado at Kathleen (northwest of Lakeland). Had a few more squalls with gusty winds throughout this morning and afternoon.

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