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TROPICAL STORM JERRY
09-18-2019, 09:45 AM
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
11AM
Quote: WTNT45 KNHC 180901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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09-18-2019, 10:54 AM
Post: #2
RE: TROPICAL STORM JERRY
[Image: storm_10.gif]

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09-19-2019, 07:25 AM
Post: #3
RE: TROPICAL STORM JERRY
almost a cane

Quote: Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that
Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this
morning. The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature
with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the
cyclone. Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become
a hurricane later today. Afterward, the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on
the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early
period intensification. Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of
the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear
as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to
the north of Hispaniola. Therefore, a weakening trend is expected
through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is
slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but
above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the
HWRF.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14
kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track
philosophy. The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the
southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast
of Jerry through the 48 hour period. Around day 3, Jerry is likely
to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing
weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W
longitude. The official track forecast is based on a blend of the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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