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Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
09-13-2019, 06:47 AM
Post: #21
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE



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09-13-2019, 07:12 AM
Post: #22
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
The models are over estimating this system. It's still an open wave due to wind shear, and there appears to be very little, if any rotation on the satellite loop this morning.

[Image: GOES11502019256RLwcLL.jpg]

Given that there is no closed circulation, how is this wave going to be picked up and deflected so easily?

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09-13-2019, 11:07 AM (This post was last modified: 09-13-2019 11:12 AM by Alex.)
Post: #23
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
Levi tweeted that the GFS is more in agreement with the other models and has shifted eastward.
NHC has upped their forecast to show a hurricane moving east across the Atlantic now 5 days out.
This would be another odd track climatologically.

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09-13-2019, 01:30 PM
Post: #24
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
???? cyclone normally refers to a hurricane in the Indian ocean? why are they calling 9 a cyclone? thanks
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09-13-2019, 03:23 PM (This post was last modified: 09-13-2019 03:23 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #25
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
Dylan Federico WTVM
·
While the latest track is less than ideal for Dorian recovery efforts in
the Bahamas, you have to love the eastward trend of NINE if you live in
the United States!

Latest forecast trends keep #NINE well
offshore of the US East Coast, with only minimal impacts such has high
surf & rip currents. Unfortunately, what will likely be tropical
storm #HUMBERTO will bring inclement weather to the Bahamas this
weekend, which is the last thing that humanitarian relief efforts need.

The
eastward shift does have consequences though, as much of the SE US will
miss out of much needed beneficial rainfall, and general hot & dry
weather will continue. Though, we’re only a couple of weeks away from
talking about our first real cold front, and once those start coming
down, our chances of a big hurricane strike decrease dramatically.

The Atlantic will likely stay active through mid-October this year, so there will be more.

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09-13-2019, 07:46 PM
Post: #26
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
Yup, a five day period of oppressive heat and ultra dry air from Dorian really ko'd rainy season here. TD 9 will likely give the FL peninsula more prolonged dry sinking air. Once October arrives, rain chances go down dramatically on the west coast of Florida, and if this trend keeps up we'll be looking at the drought monitor come December...
(09-13-2019 03:23 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Dylan Federico WTVM

The
eastward shift does have consequences though, as much of the SE US will
miss out of much needed beneficial rainfall, and general hot & dry
weather will continue.

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09-13-2019, 08:09 PM
Post: #27
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE



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Yesterday, 07:50 AM
Post: #28
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
From
NHC - A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico is primarily associated with a upper-level low pressure area.
Only slow development of this system is likely during the next couple of
days. However, conditions could become more conducive for development
early next week as the system moves over the western Gulf of Mexico.
[Image: 70369357_10215886929267712_2205959709339...e=5DF03A1B]

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