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HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
08-24-2019, 09:54 AM (This post was last modified: 08-28-2019 01:53 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
723
WTNT35 KNHC 241442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 47.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude
47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Model plots

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241457
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the
past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired
enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression,
the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT
passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system
had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and
that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow
is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to
moderate easterly vertical wind shear.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is
in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general
west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the
central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official
forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a
little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to
southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to
steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the
24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to
remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small
overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear
regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but
steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional
intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust
HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 10.4N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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08-25-2019, 10:01 AM
Post: #2
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
074
WTNT45 KNHC 251449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since
the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection
has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding.
However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered
around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.

A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave
satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial
motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward
for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible
thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area
forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model
guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit
faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast
track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast
lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus
models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the
UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the
track may be required on the next advisory if the current model
trends continue.

While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone
still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective
pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the
next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again
calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity
forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in
the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new
forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves
over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to
passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities
includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a
hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over
Hispaniola.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and
the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions
of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but
interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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08-27-2019, 06:27 AM
Post: #3
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
[Image: storm_05.gif]

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08-27-2019, 06:28 AM
Post: #4
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN



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08-27-2019, 06:30 AM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian passed over Barbados a few hours ago and it is now very near
the Windward Islands. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
earlier this morning suggest that the storm has held steady in
intensity with a blend of the flight level and SFMR winds
supporting a wind speed of 45 kt. The Caribbean composite
radar data show that Dorian remains a very compact system and that
it still lacks a well-defined inner core.

Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere around Dorian has been
causing the storm to remain in a fairly steady state during the
past day or so despite relatively low wind shear conditions and warm
SSTs. The models show this dry air persisting in the vicinity of
the system while it tracks across the Caribbean during the next day
or two, so it seems likely that Dorian will continue to only
gradually intensify during that time. When Dorian nears Hispaniola
in 36 to 48 hours, there will likely be some increase in wind shear
and those less favorable winds aloft and the interaction with the
landmasses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should cause considerable
weakening. Once the system moves north of the Greater Antilles, the
environmental conditions become more favorable for intensification,
and most of the intensity guidance responds by showing an increase
in winds. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for this
part of the forecast because the future intensity of Dorian will be
quite dependent on how much land interaction there is with the
mountainous island of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the
system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue for another 12 to 24 hours taking Dorian across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a slight turn to the northwest is
likely when the cyclone nears the eastern portion of a cut off mid-
to upper-level low and moves toward a weakness in the ridge. This
should take Dorian across the Dominican Republic and the Mona
Passage and over the Bahamas in the 3 to 4 day time period. A ridge
is likely to rebuild to the north of Dorian when it is forecast to
be over the Bahamas and that could cause it to turn slightly to the
left by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast
is largely unchanged while Dorian is in the Caribbean, but it has
been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

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08-28-2019, 05:02 AM
Post: #6
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
000
WTNT45 KNHC 280848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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08-28-2019, 05:03 AM
Post: #7
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
[Image: 084950_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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08-28-2019, 05:04 AM
Post: #8
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
[Image: storm_05.gif]

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08-28-2019, 07:10 AM
Post: #9
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN



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08-28-2019, 11:34 AM
Post: #10
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
NHC now calling for a major cane to hit FL Sad
Quote: TNT45 KNHC 281510 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.

Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.

3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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