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HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
08-30-2019, 07:24 AM
Post: #31
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Why are there no better updates guys ?
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08-30-2019, 07:37 AM
Post: #32
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Looking much better for the GOM
[Image: storm_05.gif]

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08-30-2019, 07:50 AM
Post: #33
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
(08-30-2019 07:24 AM)Flametamr Wrote:  Why are there no better updates guys ?

forums are just not that popular anymore and being replaced with facebook etc. Honestly 2 years ago I almost pulled the plug on this site but decided to keep it open and see what the future had in store. It's sad to see the lack of posting cause alot of $$$ and time has been put into this site to keep it running . We have never got into banning people or censored anyone cause I see way to much of that on other sites where they lock threads and hand out warnings left and right like it's candy . I would like to thank the 175 users who have donated over the years and have kept this site running .If you have any suggestions on how we can save Hardcoreweather feel free to shoot me a PM and I can always be reached at Hardcoreweather on gmail . Thanks again James

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08-30-2019, 09:58 AM
Post: #34
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
11AM
Quote: 000
WTNT45 KNHC 301449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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08-30-2019, 10:55 AM
Post: #35
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
I am in Fort Lauderdale and I am surprisingly calm.

/stupid
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08-30-2019, 11:22 AM
Post: #36
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Looking more and more like a potential repeat of Matthew (I initially thought that a few days ago after watching Levi's update). Thoughts Roll?

AARoads
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08-30-2019, 11:28 AM
Post: #37
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
(08-30-2019 11:22 AM)Alex Wrote:  Looking more and more like a potential repeat of Matthew (I initially thought that a few days ago after watching Levi's update). Thoughts Roll?


I agree and was thinking the exact same thing
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08-30-2019, 12:52 PM
Post: #38
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
The HWRF bottoms #DORIAN out around ~930mb.

With at least 3 days left over boiling hot waters & low wind shear,
Dorian reaching CAT 5 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
#TropicalUpdate

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08-30-2019, 01:09 PM
Post: #39
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
[b]2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30[/b]

Location: 24.8°N 70.3°W

Moving: NW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 970 mb

Max sustained: 115 mph

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08-30-2019, 03:51 PM
Post: #40
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
[b]5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 30[/b]

Location: 25.0°N 70.7°W

Moving: WNW at 9 mph

Min pressure: 970 mb

Max sustained: 115 mph

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