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HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
08-29-2019, 06:38 AM
Post: #21
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
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08-29-2019, 10:21 AM
Post: #22
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
11AM
Quote: 00
WTNT45 KNHC 291447
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared
satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3
aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure,
with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi
diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to
around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the
aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite
the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75
kt for this advisory.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving
northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an
upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the
Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the
north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward
the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond
72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the
ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the
period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical
wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least
steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small
inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also
remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term
given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity
forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.
The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

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08-29-2019, 01:46 PM
Post: #23
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Gas prices in the Tampa area have shot up 20 to 25 cents since yesterday. Still plenty of gas available, but most stations I passed today were fairly busy. I got ethanol free for our generator at $2.959 in Wesley Chapel and topped off the car at $2.409 for 87 octane.

The general buzz around here is guarded. A few I spoke with where comparing the increasing tension with Irma, but also noting that Irma ended up not being too bad outside of some prolonged power outages. I gave a comparison about the potential slow movement of Dorian up the Florida Peninsula to a couple of people about T.S. Fay in 2008, where it just sat over the Lake Okeechobee area for days and deluging the state with flooding rains.

AARoads
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08-29-2019, 05:07 PM
Post: #24
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL



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08-29-2019, 05:08 PM
Post: #25
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Oh man - this is one that just doesn't have a best case scenario short of disappearing! And I'm kinda hating the new mess Africa just made, too...

Scientia Est Potentia
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08-29-2019, 08:48 PM
Post: #26
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
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08-29-2019, 10:34 PM
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Hello where did all the chasers go?
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08-30-2019, 05:05 AM
Post: #28
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
5AM
Quote: TNT45 KNHC 300854
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

There hasn't been a lot of new data since the Hurricane Hunter
planes departed Dorian several hours ago. The convective pattern
on infrared satellite imagery has been nearly steady state,
although the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB rose to
T5.0/90 kt. These estimates, combined with the earlier aircraft
data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 90 kt.

Dorian's heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with
the latest estimate northwestward, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Dorian
is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near
Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The
high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming
established over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models
are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning
westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the
northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day
3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and
Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the
Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic
models and their ensemble members during that time, with
disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn
northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the
tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle
did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with
perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The
biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near
Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a
prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.

The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some
southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from
strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more
favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which
should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although
overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for
strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that
some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves
through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC
official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is
forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain
that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the
Florida peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas,
where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should
begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given
by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of
hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days
in parts of Florida early next week.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the
Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to
determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of
devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and
peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too
soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents
should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a
hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

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08-30-2019, 05:06 AM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
(08-29-2019 10:34 PM)Profish00 Wrote:  Hello where did all the chasers go?

I think that they all went over to Myspace Big Grin

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08-30-2019, 07:11 AM
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL



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