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HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
08-28-2019, 01:52 PM
Post: #11
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
Now a cane !

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08-28-2019, 01:52 PM
Post: #12
RE: TROPICAL STORM DORIAN



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08-28-2019, 03:29 PM (This post was last modified: 08-28-2019 03:31 PM by Squirrelmonkey.)
Post: #13
HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
My wife is heading down to Turks tomorrow........this could be interesting

I also do not like the path of the purple model with the square .

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08-28-2019, 03:45 PM
Post: #14
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
[Image: 174436_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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08-28-2019, 03:46 PM
Post: #15
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.

Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that
Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12
kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models
continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this
flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest
toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend,
a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The
new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous
one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and
the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra,
Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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08-28-2019, 08:49 PM (This post was last modified: 08-28-2019 08:52 PM by Squirrelmonkey.)
Post: #16
HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
This is looking ugly for Florida [Image: 5ea6bbcb9a6bda7682cf005b63ce77a4.jpg]

[Image: 0e20c915dac7624b943666d4a217be32.jpg]

Euro [Image: d758a973e309518665c811b73957c5a3.jpg]

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08-28-2019, 09:22 PM
Post: #17
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
Sitting here in Orlando...hmmmm. What are thoughts that the blob in the Atlantic moves enough to let Dorian go up the coast and out to sea? Girlfriend wants me to come over to her house. I live in high rise apartment. She has massive tree in her back yard. Thinking I'm staying in high rise.
Thanks again for all the info y'all put into this. Best site there is.
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08-28-2019, 11:25 PM
Post: #18
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
I can't vouch for the validity of this one...

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08-29-2019, 06:36 AM
Post: #19
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL
00
WTNT45 KNHC 290843
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

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08-29-2019, 06:37 AM
Post: #20
RE: HURRICANE DORIAN Major threat for FL



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