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Hurricane Michael
10-07-2018, 10:01 PM
Post: #31
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
[Image: 025901_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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10-08-2018, 04:28 AM
Post: #32
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna
Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border
eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to
Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm
Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the
Mississippi-Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward
the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by
a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan
Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03
inches).

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10-08-2018, 04:29 AM
Post: #33
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep
convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and
upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western
semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made
several passes through the system during the past few hours, and
somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen
to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.
This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which
has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly
intensified during the past 24 hours.

With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official
intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.
Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures
are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the
favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of
the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast
brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48
hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time
between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael
will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain
tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east
coast of the United States. Michael should then become an
extratropical low by day 5.

The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving
northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours
as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and
central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn
northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States,
exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,
where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
the Isle of Youth today.

2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major
hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,
and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for
portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are
especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's
exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

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10-08-2018, 04:33 AM
Post: #34
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
[Image: 085823_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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10-08-2018, 04:54 AM
Post: #35
RE: Tropical Storm Michael



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10-08-2018, 05:25 AM
Post: #36
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
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10-08-2018, 06:07 AM
Post: #37
RE: Tropical Storm Michael



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10-08-2018, 06:57 AM
Post: #38
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
[b]7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 8[/b]

Location: 20.9°N 85.1°W

Moving: N at 7 mph

Min pressure: 982 mb

Max sustained: 70 mph

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10-08-2018, 08:05 AM
Post: #39
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
crickets !!!!

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10-08-2018, 08:50 AM (This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 09:16 AM by twiztidcabbie.)
Post: #40
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
(10-08-2018 08:05 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  crickets !!!!
I'm here. I'm just over here in Pcola not knowing what to say right now. lol

Actually I do know what to say...but I think this is a family friendly forum. lol
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