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Hurricane Michael
10-07-2018, 04:09 PM
Post: #21
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Opal part 2 ?

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10-07-2018, 05:11 PM
Post: #22
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
dead quiet with a major cane headed for the FL Panhandle.... I am shocked

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10-07-2018, 07:36 PM (This post was last modified: 10-07-2018 07:36 PM by Cahoots.)
Post: #23
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Just wait... everyone started their weekend with nothing going on and they're still in weekend mode... tomorrow morning when everyone watches the news and logs in... it'll be on!! I hate these late season storms... you can't tell much until they clear the Yucatan channel and then it's so close it's.... well.. it's close.

My Storm Creds:
Frederic - 1979
Elena - 1985
Georges - 1998
Ivan - 2004
Katrina - 2005

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10-07-2018, 08:24 PM
Post: #24
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
[Image: storm_14.gif]

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10-07-2018, 08:29 PM
Post: #25
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Mobile NWS
Quote: SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Main weather
player heading into the middle of the week will be Tropical Storm
Michael, which is forecast to lift northward over the central
Gulf, approaching the northern Gulf by Wednesday. There are indications
that Michael will intensify and could become a hurricane as it
approaches the northeast Gulf coast by mid week. The western flank
of the current track cone of uncertainty extends from Pensacola to
the eastern flank of the cone just south of Cedar Key Florida.
With that in mind, forecasters want to stress that there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty at later forecast ranges with Michael
regarding how fast or slow it moves poleward between the mid level ridge
to the northeast and an upper trof approaching the Mississippi
Valley. This will have a significant bearing on future track.
Watches will be likely by Monday morning along all or a part of
the coastal zone forecast area. Given model spread and high
levels of uncertainty, forecasters cannot provide specific impacts
from surge, wind, and flooding rain threat as of yet. Stay tuned.
/10

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10-07-2018, 09:06 PM
Post: #26
RE: Tropical Storm Michael



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10-07-2018, 09:44 PM
Post: #27
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
(10-07-2018 09:06 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  

This fellow is certainly entitled to interject his viewpoint as much as he wants, of course. But, I prefer the straight forward approach of Levi or Spann.

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10-07-2018, 09:56 PM
Post: #28
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
(10-07-2018 09:44 PM)SevereWxEnthusiast Wrote:  
(10-07-2018 09:06 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  

This fellow is certainly entitled to interject his viewpoint as much as he wants, of course. But, I prefer the straight forward approach of Levi or Spann.

I am kind of shocked that he didn't beg for donations . Angry

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10-07-2018, 09:57 PM
Post: #29
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

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10-07-2018, 09:59 PM
Post: #30
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
000
WTNT44 KNHC 080257
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of
60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since
that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where
those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has
been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the
recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast
rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable
differences between the models that will ultimately determine where
and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS,
ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western
side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the
farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA
corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models
are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model
track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is
expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until
landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection,
associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the
eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward
the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight
eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this
advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous
advisory track on days 3-5.

Michael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of
the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to
about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective
pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over
the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a
tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center.
This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface
temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual
strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent
westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has
been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains
similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little
lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although
the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the
cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an
indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.0N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL
96H 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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