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Hurricane Michael
10-10-2018, 06:13 PM
Post: #221
RE: Hurricane Michael
Our VP of engineering is trying to make it from Ft. Walton to Tallahassee, been driving for two hours and no farther east than Marianna. Small town of Cottondale is decimated, multiple large trees across the majority of Interstate 10. This is going to be a long term recovery.

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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10-10-2018, 06:18 PM
Post: #222
RE: Hurricane Michael
Has anyone seen reports out of Mexico Beach? I was watching a live feed from the beach there right up until Michael was about half way onshore. Surge had clearly over washed the highway and it was absolute whiteout... Haven't seen a single report since.

My Storm Creds:
Frederic - 1979
Elena - 1985
Georges - 1998
Ivan - 2004
Katrina - 2005

Mets Creds = 0
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10-10-2018, 06:28 PM
Post: #223
RE: Hurricane Michael
[b]7:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10[/b]

Location: 31.1°N 84.9°W

Moving: NNE at 13 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

Max sustained: 100 mph

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10-10-2018, 06:45 PM
Post: #224
RE: Hurricane Michael
(10-10-2018 06:28 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  [b]7:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10[/b]

Location: 31.1°N 84.9°W

Moving: NNE at 13 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

Max sustained: 100 mph
When has there ever been a CAT 2 hurricane in SW Georgia?

Crazy Dale
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10-10-2018, 07:02 PM
Post: #225
RE: Hurricane Michael
[b]8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10[/b]

Location: 31.5°N 84.5°W

Moving: NE at 17 mph

Min pressure: 955 mb

Max sustained: 90 mph

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10-10-2018, 07:03 PM
Post: #226
RE: Hurricane Michael
There are going to be a lot of people that need help.

Crazy Dale
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10-10-2018, 10:04 PM
Post: #227
RE: Hurricane Michael
000
WTNT44 KNHC 110300
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael
has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it
moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85
kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the
eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the
low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely
making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due
to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the
trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the
cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below
tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the
Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and
Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is
expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low
pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to
accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper
mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal
system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn
east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the
north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered
about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were
made.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,
where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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10-11-2018, 06:55 AM
Post: #228
RE: Hurricane Michael
WTNT44 KNHC 110849
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern
Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased
to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to
the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for
the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina
and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start
to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become
a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and
it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical
phase.

The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward
the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near
the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the
previous forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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10-11-2018, 10:00 AM
Post: #229
RE: Hurricane Michael
000
WTNT44 KNHC 111449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of
Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will
be moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds near
the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports
of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South
Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumed
that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest
winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern
portions of South Carolina this morning. As Michael's circulation
emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is
expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward
along the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michael
will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global
models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen
after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropical
portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.
Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic
during the next couple of days. There has been little change to
the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the
previous advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of
South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with
sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the
Carolinas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.7N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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10-12-2018, 07:57 AM
Post: #230
RE: Hurricane Michael
NOAA released aerial photos showing the aftermath from Hurricane Michael taken yesterday. The imagery covers the coast from St. George Island west all the way to Fort Morgan, Alabama, with stretches northward along Florida 77 and U.S. 231 in Bay County. The damage in Mexico Beach is catastrophic, and the northern end of St. Joseph Peninsula is now an island.

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