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Hurricane Michael
10-06-2018, 10:13 PM
Post: #11
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures
are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is
a tropical cyclone at this time. All indications are, however, that
a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind
shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model
only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global
models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this
system. Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC
forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the
intensity consensus IVCN. However, the forecast is highly uncertain
given the solution of the global models.

Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial
motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or
360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be
embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough
advancing eastward over the United States. This flow pattern will
force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the
system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should
then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S. The
track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases
the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone
forms.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late
Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.8N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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10-07-2018, 07:36 AM
Post: #12
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
WTNT44 KNHC 070851
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that
the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep
convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level
center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5
from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become
sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical
depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on
earlier ASCAT data.

The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the
depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is
north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The
depression is expected to move generally northward during the next
3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing
deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After
day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn
northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United
States. While the track models agree on the general scenario,
there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model
being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS
models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little
slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of
the forecast.

The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly
shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level
diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of
Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is
forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the
diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently
warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the
depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity
guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches
land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all
show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC
intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity
consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it
now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72
hours.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST

$$
Forecaster Berg

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10-07-2018, 09:10 AM
Post: #13
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
I could see this easily making landfall as a strong Cat 2 or even stronger .

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10-07-2018, 09:47 AM
Post: #14
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble



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10-07-2018, 10:07 AM
Post: #15
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
[Image: storm_14.gif]

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10-07-2018, 10:13 AM
Post: #16
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
WTNT44 KNHC 071453
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to
become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation
may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly
shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main
convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over
the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression
appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment
of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at
a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is
forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and
weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for
gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of
Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to
hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the
NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the
ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive
HWRF and HCCA models.

The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is
forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days,
with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central
United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as
the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central
United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall
scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In
fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of
Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that
time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that
are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC
track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for
both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by
mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and
magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.2N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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10-07-2018, 12:10 PM
Post: #17
RE: Gulf Of Mexico OCT trouble
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.

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10-07-2018, 12:57 PM
Post: #18
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
I don't like to hype storms but I don't see how this isn't a major cane

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10-07-2018, 04:01 PM
Post: #19
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

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10-07-2018, 04:01 PM
Post: #20
RE: Tropical Storm Michael
100 MPH!!!!

Quote: Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be
some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again
close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The
shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for
steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should
also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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