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Tropical Storm Kirk
09-22-2018, 10:34 AM
Post: #1
Tropical Storm Kirk
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09-24-2018, 01:19 AM (This post was last modified: 09-24-2018 01:20 AM by HarvestMoon.)
Post: #2
RE: Tropical Storm Kirk
[Image: 024257_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
Quote: 618
WTNT32 KNHC 240237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...KIRK WEAKER AND ACCELERATING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk
was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A
rapid westward motion is anticipated for the next day or two.
A slight decrease in forward motion is expected by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in the maximum winds is forecast during
the next several days. It is possible that Kirk could degenerate
into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it
moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Quote: 440
WTNT42 KNHC 240239
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair
of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has
likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a
closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or
surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT
passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the
alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical
depression for now.

The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center
of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the
west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast
has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all
forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a
tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving
rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the
system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result
in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean.
The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from
becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models
do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next
couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the
forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if
it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower
motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong
vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the
system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global
and regional dynamical model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 9.4N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 9.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 10.0N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 10.3N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 10.6N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 11.7N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 14.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-25-2018, 01:19 AM
Post: #3
RE: Tropical Storm Kirk
Quote:
619
AXNT20 KNHC 250555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018
.
.
.
The remnants of Kirk are analyzed as a tropical wave along 43W
from 03N to 16N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is associated with the wave. Winds to gale force are
in the northern portion of the wave. This system could redevelop
into a tropical cyclone during the next two days before it
encounters unfavorable upper-level winds east of the the
Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-26-2018, 10:09 PM
Post: #4
RE: Tropical Storm Kirk
Quote: 196
WTNT32 KNHC 270250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KIRK A LITTLE WEAKER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
13.0 North, longitude 57.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles
within the tropical storm warning area Thursday or Thursday
evening.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days,
but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into
the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on the latest aircraft data is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and
Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quote: 339
WTNT42 KNHC 270251
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

Strengthening vertical shear is beginning to take its toll on Kirk,
with the low-level center displaced to the west of the deep
convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb, with maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 56 kt and believable SFMR winds as high as 44
kt. Based on these wind data, Kirk's initial intensity is lowered
to 45 kt. Vertical shear is forecast to increase further, reaching
over 30 kt in about 24 hours, which should cause Kirk to continue
weakening over the next day or two. And, based on the latest global
model guidance, the cyclone could open up into a trough any time
after passing by the Lesser Antilles. The new NHC intensity
forecast is mainly an update of the previous one to account for the
lower initial intensity, and it continues to closely follow the
intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA guidance. Dissipation is
now shown by day 4, but as mentioned above, this could occur a lot
sooner.

Kirk appears to have slowed down just a little, with an initial
motion toward the west-northwest, or 285/14 kt. Ridging to the
north should maintain Kirk on this general trajectory, with perhaps
just a slight deceleration as it moves into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. There are some speed differences among the models, with the
ECMWF showing a weaker and faster system, while the GFS shows a
slightly stronger and slower system. The NHC track forecast is
between these two solutions and is closest to the HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 13.6N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.1N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.0N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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