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TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
09-10-2018, 12:55 PM
Post: #1
Exclamation TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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09-10-2018, 03:59 PM
Post: #2
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
[Image: storm_95.gif]

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09-10-2018, 04:28 PM
Post: #3
TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
I was looking at this just a minute ago.

Too many systems to follow, it’s like herding cats

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

"Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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09-10-2018, 04:46 PM
Post: #4
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
Getting better organized this afternoon
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09-10-2018, 07:07 PM
Post: #5
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated
with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in
the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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09-11-2018, 04:58 AM
Post: #6
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
Quote: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, however, there are still no
signs of a surface circulation. This system is forecast to move
slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula today with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development later in the week, and a tropical
depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across
northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and Louisiana should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-11-2018, 07:52 AM
Post: #7
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
Water vapor imagery is showing the start of circulation between the Yucatan and Cuba. Either that's an upper level low, or the starting point of formation of a tropical vortex. The general motion appears to be toward the Texas coast.

I'm watching this one closely. After Harvey, it doesn't take much of a storm to get my close attention.
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09-11-2018, 08:03 AM
Post: #8
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A large area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is a associated
with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Although
this activity is showing signs of organization, there are no signs
of a surface circulation. Limited development is anticipated
today, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the
disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests
across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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09-11-2018, 12:41 PM
Post: #9
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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09-11-2018, 12:59 PM
Post: #10
RE: TEXAS THREAT!! 50% now
With the stalled front along the Texas coast, and the indication it will remain for a few days, this system may be the cause of a lot of flooding along the Gulf Coast.
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