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HURRICANE ISAAC
09-09-2018, 12:45 PM (This post was last modified: 09-10-2018 07:28 AM by Alex.)
Post: #1
Rainbow HURRICANE ISAAC
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09-10-2018, 07:31 AM
Post: #2
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
Quote:720
WTNT34 KNHC 100840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 42.7W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 42.7 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is forecast through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as
Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

AARoads
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09-11-2018, 04:53 AM
Post: #3
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
Quote: 303
WTNT34 KNHC 110831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 48.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast
track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 6 inches across the
Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the Windward Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-11-2018, 03:53 PM
Post: #4
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
14
WTNT44 KNHC 112033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave and visible satellite data show that the center of Isaac
is partially exposed on the western edge of the central dense
overcast. Perhaps Isaac is a little weaker than earlier, but a
blend of the latest subjective and objective estimates still gives
an uncertain initial wind speed of about 60 kt. We should have a
better idea of the maximum winds by tomorrow morning when a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter enters the storm, or if we get lucky with a
scatterometer pass this evening.

Isaac is barely holding on in the face of increasing shear, which
is much more evident in the 300-500 mb layer than a conventional
analysis at 200 mb. However, convection could redevelop near the
center while the storm moves over warming SSTs into a more moist and
unstable environment east of the Lesser Antilles. These
conflicting factors lead to a forecast of little change in the winds
of Isaac until the cyclone moves into the eastern Caribbean. I
should mention that the short-term trend on satellite makes me think
the intensity forecast is too high over the next 36 hours. Yet,
given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes in marginal
environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed uncertainty,
this is the course of least regret. We can see if this trend
becomes more consistent before making substantial changes on the
next advisory. Model guidance is very divergent in the long range
for Isaac, with the regional hurricane and statistical models
showing intensification, while the global models show continued
weakening. The global models have done fairly well with this
cyclone, so the forecast will lean more heavily on their weaker
solutions.

The latest initial motion estimate is 270/15, a little faster than
before. Isaac is forecast to move westward at roughly the same
speed for the next few days due to a mid-level ridge over the
central Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance is tightly clustered on this
cycle, with the UKMET now coming into good agreement with the rest
of the guidance. The only change to this forecast is to accelerate
Isaac roughly 1 kt over the course of the prediction, which over the
course of a 5-day forecast results in a sizable westward shift.
This forecast could still be too slow, since the GFS and ECMWF are
a bit ahead of the new NHC track prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials, and warnings will likely be issued this evening.

2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.6N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.6N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.8N 56.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.0N 59.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 15.3N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 15.5N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 15.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 15.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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09-11-2018, 03:54 PM
Post: #5
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
[Image: 203538_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-12-2018, 12:10 AM (This post was last modified: 09-12-2018 12:12 AM by HarvestMoon.)
Post: #6
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
Quote: 504
WTNT34 KNHC 120258
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND
GUADELOUPE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 52.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 52.3 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the
central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by Friday or
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated
across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Quote: 374
WTNT44 KNHC 120259
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

A slew of recent microwave passes have revealed that Isaac's center
is outrunning the deep convection by about a degree due to
strengthening westerly shear. With the degradation in structure,
Dvorak estimates have fallen to T3.0/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB.
The initial intensity is being set at 55 kt to match the CI number
(3.5), but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity is
closer to the final-T number.

Isaac is moving quickly westward, or 270/14 kt. Ridging to the
north should keep the cyclone on a similar speed and path for much
of the forecast period. The only main difference among the track
models is Isaac's future speed, and the NHC official forecast
continues to favor the faster models--the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA
models. Since the forecast thinking is unchanged, the updated NHC
forecast is not too different from the previous one. Isaac's
center is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles near
Martinique and Dominica on Thursday.

Vertical shear is expected to increase and turn more northwesterly
during the next 36 hours as Isaac moves closer to the base of an
upper-level trough which extends northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Therefore, deep convection is expected to remain decoupled from the
low-level center, and Isaac's structure could degrade further over
the next day or two. The cyclone's maximum winds are also expected
to decrease, and the NHC official forecast is close to the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus aids.
Even though the statistical-dynamical models and the HWRF
restrengthen Isaac by days 4 and 5 when the shear decreases, there
may not be much left of the cyclone for any strengthening to occur.
Both the GFS and ECMWF global models show Isaac weakening to a
remnant low or opening up into a trough by days 4 or 5, which is
the scenario favored by the NHC official forecast. As such,
dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5.


Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings have been issued for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-13-2018, 06:29 AM
Post: #7
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC



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09-13-2018, 06:29 AM
Post: #8
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
[Image: storm_09.gif]

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09-13-2018, 07:06 AM
Post: #9
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
I've been watching Isaac. If it continues on its path, and it doesn't dissipate, it will be near the Yucatan, with water conditions favorable for development. All it needs is favorable atmospheric conditions, and the Gulf will be watching a hurricane.
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09-13-2018, 02:53 PM
Post: #10
RE: HURRICANE ISAAC
Path for Isaac starting to look interesting for the US
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