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HURRICANE FLORENCE
09-05-2018, 09:43 PM
Post: #1
HURRICANE FLORENCE
[Image: 203346_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
[Image: storm_06_ens.gif]
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 46.6 West. Florence is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin
Thursday night, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-07-2018, 05:56 PM
Post: #2
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Quote: BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN...
...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 52.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 52.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the early to middle part of next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the waters of
the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day
or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence
could become a hurricane again by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will
reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-08-2018, 01:35 AM
Post: #3
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-08-2018, 05:48 AM (This post was last modified: 09-08-2018 05:51 AM by stella1952.)
Post: #4
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
151
WTNT41 KNHC 080845
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite
imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has
started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus
canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level
circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting
cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have
developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with
Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow
across CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out
and become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the
development of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N
latitude. This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence
in a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5,
however, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast
to buckle and become more meridional as a deep mid-/upper-level
trough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western
U.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and
northwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general
change in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ
noticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell
takes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or
northeast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will
determine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and
possibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast
period. The new official forecast track is close to the previous
advisory track through 48 h, and then was nudged a little to the
left or west of the previous track, which is close to the consensus
model TVCN and is north of the corrected-consensus models FSSE and
HCCA since the bulk of the NHC model guidance lies north of those
latter two models.

The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly
during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of
southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10
kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east
along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to
the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that
favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new
NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory
in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions
developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday
and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional
strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg
C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus
models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little
below the FSSE model.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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09-09-2018, 10:01 AM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2018 10:02 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #5
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-09-2018, 10:02 AM
Post: #6
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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09-09-2018, 12:44 PM
Post: #7
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-09-2018, 11:43 PM
Post: #8
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Quote: BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 57.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-10-2018, 07:27 AM
Post: #9
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
The potential flooding in NC could rival Floyd from 1999:

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09-10-2018, 07:30 AM
Post: #10
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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