HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-13-2018, 06:26 AM
Post: #61
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 The satellite presentation of Florence has changed little overnight with the eye waxing and waning in infrared imagery. The eye has moved into NWS radar range and can be seen in radar data from Morehead City and Wilmington NWS 88-D imagery. An 0616 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that the convection over the southern and southeastern portions of the storm is still disrupted, and that the eyewall was open to the southeast. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft also reported that the eyewall was not fully intact on its last pass through the storm just after that time. The Air Force plane measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 102 kt and peak SFMR winds of 85 kt during the mission. These data suggest that the intensity may be slightly lower, but the initial intensity has been maintained at 95 kt, since the plane may not have sampled the strongest winds. Another Air Force plane will be in Florence shortly, and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the hurricane. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it appears that some southern shear has caused the degradation of the inner core. The global models suggest that this shear will relax today while Florence moves over warm waters, however, given the current storm structure, little overall change in strength is anticipated as Florence approaches the coast. Gradual weakening should occur as the hurricane interacts with land in 24-36 h, with a faster rate of weakening predicted once Florence moves farther inland. Florence is moving northwestward or 315 degrees at 13 kt. A developing mid-level ridge over the north-central United States should cause the forward speed of the hurricane to decrease today. As the steering currents collapse tonight and Friday, Florence is forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward and continue that slow motion into the weekend. The global models predict that the ridge will slide eastward over the weekend, which should allow Florence to turn northwestward and northward by the end of the forecast period. Although there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, with the GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, and the ECWMF along the southern edge, the various consensus aids have moved little. As a result, the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory. Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence is a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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09-13-2018, 06:27 AM
Post: #62
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-13-2018, 06:28 AM
Post: #63
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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09-13-2018, 07:38 AM
Post: #64
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HURRICANE FLORENCE
(09-13-2018 05:38 AM)jess Wrote: Satellite imagery shows the eye wall is not as distinct, and the storm is increasing in size. Like Ike Weakening at landfall, but big, formerly powerful, and will push a bunch of water..... Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? "Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn |
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09-13-2018, 07:45 AM
Post: #65
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
(09-13-2018 07:38 AM)Squirrelmonkey Wrote:I rode out Ike about 50 miles from the center at landfall. The sustained winds (according to a NOAA wind gauge 2 miles away) was 80 mph. The wind damage was minimal compared to Rita, but the surge filled ditches near my home, which is over twenty miles inland, and 23 feet above sea level. If we'd had that type of surge, with Harvey's rain, the damage would have been substantially worse.(09-13-2018 05:38 AM)jess Wrote: Satellite imagery shows the eye wall is not as distinct, and the storm is increasing in size. |
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09-13-2018, 08:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 08:55 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #66
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Marky Mark is live and begging for donations
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09-13-2018, 09:48 AM
Post: #67
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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09-13-2018, 09:58 AM
Post: #68
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
WTNT41 KNHC 131456
TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 The satellite and radar presentations of Florence have improved somewhat this morning, with a 20-25 nmi wide eye closing off in the radar data from the Morehead City and Wilmington WSR-88D Doppler weather radars. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the hurricane this morning has not yet found any flight-level or SFMR winds to support more than about 80 kt at the surface thus far, even though the pressure has decreased to 955 mb. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 90 kt, given that there are peak Doppler velocity values up to 110 kt with average values of 95-97 kt at 15,000 ft in the northern eyewall region, an area of the hurricane that the reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive. Florence has been gradually slowing down this morning, and the initial motion estimate is now 315/09 kt. The subtropical ridge to the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday as the ridge to the north of Florence weakens due to a weak shortwave trough dropping slowly southward from the Ohio Valley. On days 3-5, Florence is forecast turn toward the northwest and north around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and move across western South Carolina on Sunday, across western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee on Monday, and then move up the spine of the Appalachians as an extratropical low after the cyclone merges or interacts with a frontal system. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE. Florence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the hurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12 hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior to landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some due to upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall occurs, rapid weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is expected to due land interaction and Florence's slow forward speed of 5 kt or less. However, intense rainbands are expected to develop over the Atlantic waters and keep moving along the coast and inland, likely producing strong wind gusts through Saturday night. Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina as soon as this evening, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 33.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 33.9N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 15/0000Z 34.1N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 34.0N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 36.9N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1200Z 40.3N 79.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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09-13-2018, 10:07 AM
Post: #69
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018 The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina... * Until 1115 AM EDT. * At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar Island, moving west at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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09-13-2018, 10:10 AM
Post: #70
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RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
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