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HURRICANE FLORENCE
09-11-2018, 12:42 PM
Post: #31
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[b]2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11[/b]

Location: 27.1°N 66.2°W

Moving: WNW at 17 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

Max sustained: 130 mph

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09-11-2018, 03:52 PM
Post: #32
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle
and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

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09-11-2018, 03:59 PM
Post: #33
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
545
WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible
and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.
Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets
to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all
T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are
T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also
warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped
upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii
had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.

The initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,
the global and regional models have done a good job capturing the
evolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an
amplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,
which is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.
and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates
that the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing
to build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.

During the next 24 hours or so, Florence is expected to remain in a
very favorable environment consisting of low shear near 5 kt, an
expanding upper-level outflow pattern, and above-average SSTs of
29.0-29.5 deg C, which should result in additional strengthening.
By 48 h, the decreasing forward speed along with the large
inner-core wind field should induce some upwelling and gradual
weakening. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models
are indicating an increase in the southwesterly shear to near 20 kt,
this could be due to the SHIPS model capturing Florence's own
strong outflow from the GFS and ECMWF model fields. Despite the
weakening shown at 72 hours, Florence is still expected to remain a
dangerous hurricane through landfall. After Florence moves inland,
the slow forward speed of less than 5 kt should cause a rapid spin
down and weakening of the hurricane's circulation. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the highest guidance based on
the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to
maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.5N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.4N 76.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 34.5N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1800Z 35.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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09-11-2018, 04:03 PM
Post: #34
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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09-11-2018, 05:20 PM
Post: #35
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Josh Johnson WSFA

39 mins ·
The
European model is a worst-case scenario along the NC/SC coastline - it
shows Florence stalling just offshore, lashing the coast with 36+ hours
of hurricane force wind and torrential rain, then moving back south and
finally making landfall in South Carolina. It's an outlier, and so far,
the European has not handled Florence exceptionally well. Still, it
can't be discounted as a potential idea...

[Image: 38960057_1833421446694679_43462047740775...e=5C2742EF]



[Image: -PAXP-deijE.gif]

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09-11-2018, 05:57 PM
Post: #36
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



[Image: hurr_small.gif]
www.MyFloridaHurricane.Info
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09-11-2018, 07:01 PM
Post: #37
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
480
WTNT31 KNHC 112344
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

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09-11-2018, 09:58 PM
Post: #38
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
GOES-16 closeup view of the eye from yesterday.

[Image: 20180910000000_florence.gif]

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

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09-12-2018, 12:04 AM
Post: #39
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Quote: 575
WTNT31 KNHC 120253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early
Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late
Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North
Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quote: 554
WTNT21 KNHC 120252
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quote: 176
WTNT41 KNHC 120254
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Florence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite
images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better
defined. There has also been a little cooling of the tops
surrounding the eye. These features suggest that Florence is
maintaining its intensity. The current intensity is kept at 120
kt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest
SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next couple of days, the
hurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an
environment of low vertical shear. This would allow some
additional strengthening until about 48 hours. From that time
and up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear
which would cause some weakening. However, Florence is still likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the
coast. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence
on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the
hurricane nears the coast. The steering pattern from 72 hours and
beyond becomes more complicated and uncertain. The latest GFS
model run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central
United States in 3-4 days. This temporarily blocks the forward
progress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the
model run. Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of
Florence allowing the system to move inland. The official track
forecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to
the right of the latest consensus predictions. It should be noted
that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial
uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.

It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend
well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as
a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area
regardless of exactly where the center moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
complete preparations and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
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09-12-2018, 06:07 AM
Post: #40
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[Image: 092830_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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