Post Reply 
HURRICANE FLORENCE
09-10-2018, 05:37 PM
Post: #21
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
I hope and pray all will be safe in the path of Florence! She is a monster!
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-10-2018, 06:20 PM
Post: #22
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
There is nothing pretty about this one. Get out of its way if at all possible.
[Image: rb-animated.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-10-2018, 06:56 PM
Post: #23
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-10-2018, 10:38 PM
Post: #24
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
808
WTNT41 KNHC 110242
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last
advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since
that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the
latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a
possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft
winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane
Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.

Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus,
there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the
hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the
intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued
strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate
than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to
encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could
cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence
west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward
speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in
forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great
Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data
for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 04:49 AM
Post: #25
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Quote: 030
WTNT31 KNHC 110904 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 48...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Corrected time of next advisory

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.1 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Only people with oversized egos believe that mankind has caused global warming.

Scientific Consensus is an Oxymoron
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 06:57 AM
Post: #26
HURRICANE FLORENCE
She is a perfect buzzsaw

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

"Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 07:25 AM
Post: #27
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
WTNT41 KNHC 110856
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become
cloud filled and an earlier 0441 UTC microwave overpass revealed a
double eyewall structure. These observations suggest that an
eyewall replacement cycle is likely underway. Subjective and
objective Dvorak current intensity numbers have not changed
so the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route to the
storm and should provide a better assessment of Florence's
structure and intensity this morning. NOAA buoy 41049 located
about 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force
winds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft.

Florence's upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite
favorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of
around 29C over the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is
forecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall replacement cycles. The updated NHC intensity
forecast once again calls for additional intensification and brings
Florence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36
hours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly
shear could result in some weakening, but Florence is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the U.S.
coastline.

Florence has accelerated as anticipated and is now moving
west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 13 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed much. A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next
2 to 3 days. By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the
Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a
significant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane
is predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or South
Carolina at days 4 and 5. The ECMWF has trended slower this cycle
at days 4 and 5, and as a result the NHC forecast shows slightly
less motion at those time periods. The spread in the guidance
increases by 72 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean along the
right side of the guidance, while the ECMWF remains along the left
edge. It should be noted that there are still a number of ECMWF
members that are even farther left. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged to the left and is close to the TVCN consensus aid. Given the
amount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are
about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards
will extend well away from the center. Storm Surge and Hurricane
watches have been issued for a portion of the coast of South and
North Carolina. Additional watches may be required later today.


Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of this area.
All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 26.4N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 28.7N 69.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 34.3N 77.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 35.2N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 07:27 AM
Post: #28
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 09:49 AM
Post: #29
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[b]11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11[/b]

Location: 26.7°N 65.3°W

Moving: WNW at 16 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

Max sustained: 130 mph

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-11-2018, 11:42 AM
Post: #30
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
257
WTNT41 KNHC 111458
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the
eye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was
confirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft
provided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind
of 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central
pressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally
correlate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However,
coincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the
weak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough
to bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central
pressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all
these data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/14 kt based on the recent
recon fix data. The broken record continues -- there is no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Although
the global and regional models continue to make minor shifts
northward and southward, the consensus models have changed little.
GOES-16 high-resolution water vapor imagery indicates that the
amplifying large-scale flow pattern across CONUS is inducing a
downstream ridge over the western Atlantic, with a high pressure
cell centered northwest of Bermuda. This blocking ridge pattern is
expected to keep Florence moving west-northwestward to northwest at
around 15 kt for the next 48 hours or so. However, embedded within
the large-scale flow is a weak shortwave trough over the central and
southern Plains that is expected to eject out northeastward and
weaken the ridging across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S.,
causing Florence to slow down significantly in 72 hours as the
powerful hurricane approaches the Carolinas. On days 4 and 5, an
even slower motion or drift to the west and northwest is forecast,
which will exacerbate the heavy rainfall threat. The new NHC
forecast track is just an update of the previous one, and basically
lies the middle of the guidance envelope between the consensus
models TVCA to the north and HCCA and FSSE to the south.

Water vapor imagery indicates that Florence has finally developed
the much anticipated dual outflow pattern, with outflow jets noted
in the northwestern and eastern quadrants. The latter outflow jet is
flowing into an upper-level low, which is acting as an impressive
mass sink near 25N/49W. These two outflow channels are producing
significant deformation stretching across Florence's inner-core,
which should aid in the re-strengthening process. Now that the eye
has become stable with a diameter of about 30 n mi and since
Florence is expected to remain in a low-shear environment of around
5 kt and over above-average SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, slow but steady
strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 h and
beyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye
and relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some
upwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening
trend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase
to near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant
weakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of
Florence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is
expected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5
kt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field.
The new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity
guidance based on the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow
pattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is possible over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.7N 65.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 29.4N 70.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 35.0N 78.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 35.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)