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HURRICANE FLORENCE
09-10-2018, 09:05 AM
Post: #11
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
I know that everybody is focused on this one but what about the system headed for Texas this week ?

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09-10-2018, 10:11 AM
Post: #12
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[Image: 145000_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-10-2018, 10:12 AM
Post: #13
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.

The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

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09-10-2018, 12:34 PM
Post: #14
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
This is an amazing storm !! Storm down to 947mb and doing RI

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09-10-2018, 03:23 PM (This post was last modified: 09-10-2018 03:24 PM by paddler.)
Post: #15
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Link above is latest GFS. I'm in Wilmington NC and am freaking. This would destroy the Outer Banks, two Cat 5 landfalls in 3 days right on the nose of Cape Hatteras. Turns my stomach watching this model.
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09-10-2018, 03:57 PM
Post: #16
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11
kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over
the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the
northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,
along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building
over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra
data for the numerical models.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

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09-10-2018, 03:58 PM
Post: #17
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[Image: 145000_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-10-2018, 04:04 PM
Post: #18
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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09-10-2018, 04:04 PM
Post: #19
HURRICANE FLORENCE
I’m just now catching up and seeing how nasty Florence is.......

That is going to be a bad day for the east coast

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09-10-2018, 04:05 PM
Post: #20
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Got another lightning detector to giveaway . More details very soon Smile

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