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HURRICANE FLORENCE
09-13-2018, 09:02 PM
Post: #91
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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09-13-2018, 09:46 PM
Post: #92
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA AREA...

A NOAA observing site at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust to
101 mph (163 km/h). A private weather station in Davis, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (127 km/h)
and a wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort
Macon, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph
(114 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly on the western side of
Pamlico Sound. A gauge at Oriental, North Carolina, on the Neuse
River is recording a water height of about 6.0 feet above normal
levels.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09-13-2018, 10:03 PM
Post: #93
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

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09-13-2018, 10:05 PM
Post: #94
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
486
WTNT41 KNHC 140258
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

Florence has been wobbling a little since the previous advisory,
but the 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 305/5 kt. Nearly all
of the track models agree that Florence will turn westward or
west-southwestward during the next 36 hours, bringing the
hurricane's center inland over extreme southern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Friday night. After 48
hours, Florence is expected to recurve across the western Carolinas
and the central Appalachian Mountains around a western Atlantic
ridge. No major changes were required to the NHC official track
forecast, and it is generally close to the multi-model consensus
aids. It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility.

Florence's intensity is not likely to change much in the 12 hours
or so it has left over water. Once the center moves inland, the
intensity is forecast to decrease. However, since a good portion
of Florence's circulation will remain over water for the next 36-48
hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the regular SHIPS
model (which assumes a storm staying over water) and the Decay-SHIPS
model (which assumes the storm has moved inland). Based on that,
Florence should weaken to a tropical storm just after 24 hours and
then below tropical storm strength after 48 hours.

Florence remains a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless
of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
Friday. This surge is also likely along portions of the South
Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected
between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast on Friday. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

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09-14-2018, 12:40 AM
Post: #95
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

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09-14-2018, 06:38 AM
Post: #96
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
735 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE FINALLY MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence made landfall along
the coast of North Carolina at 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...near 34.2N
77.8W...which is near Wrightsville Beach. Maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be 90 mph (150 km/h), and the central pressure was
estimated to be 958 mb based on reports from the NOAA NOS observing
station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

SUMMARY OF 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

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09-14-2018, 06:38 AM
Post: #97
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
[Image: 093211_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-14-2018, 07:25 AM
Post: #98
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE



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09-14-2018, 09:32 AM
Post: #99
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
793
WTNT61 KNHC 141358
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE STILL WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence has been wobbling
southwestward near the coast of southeastern North Carolina.

A buoy operated by the CORMP program southeast of Wilmington, North
Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A
station operated by Weatherflow at Federal Point, North Carolina,
recently reported a pressure of 961.0 mb (28.38 in).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Beven

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09-14-2018, 09:50 AM
Post: #100
RE: HURRICANE FLORENCE
26
WTNT41 KNHC 141449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Florence's satellite signature remains very impressive even though
the eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolina
near Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on the
inner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye in
radar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. The
advisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlier
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA
Doppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and Morehead
City, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958
mb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in Wrightsville
Beach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion of
Florence's circulation over water during the next few hours.

Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate
is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a
weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical
ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours
across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over
the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the
region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in
and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually
turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to
the middle of the model guidance envelope.

Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence
has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the
center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening
forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South
Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS
model.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside later
today, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard
associated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavy
rainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in many
areas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to
come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the
South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is
expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could also
spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next
couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.0N 78.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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