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TROPICAL STORM GORDON
09-02-2018, 09:42 AM (This post was last modified: 09-03-2018 07:03 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Smile TROPICAL STORM GORDON
We have 91L now that will likely be Gordon in the GOM and be a heavy rain threat on the central gulfcoast. Much more later

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09-02-2018, 09:45 AM
Post: #2
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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09-02-2018, 10:01 AM
Post: #3
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
[Image: storm_91.gif]

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09-02-2018, 10:15 AM
Post: #4
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
KMOB
Quote: The forecast through the remainder of the short term period will
focus on the wave of low pressure that now has a 60% chance of
tropical cyclone formation early next week per the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook. The operational 00z GFS and ECMWF
models are actually in pretty good agreement with regards to
development and positioning of this feature, with an area of low
pressure developing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday
evening, lifting northwest over the central Gulf (remaining
centered south of our marine area) Monday night/Tuesday morning,
then approaching the southeastern Louisiana coast Tuesday evening.

There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the eventual
strength, track and timing of this feature. However, given recent
consistency in the guidance, favorable Gulf water temperatures
and decreasing shear aloft, confidence has been increasing that
the wave will develop into a tropical cyclone sometime early this
week as it tracks across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, deep moisture will be spreading
northwestward toward our forecast area on the northern and
northeastern side of this feature Tuesday and especially on
Tuesday night. We will have POPs ramping up to likely to
categorical chances (70-80%) by Tuesday night, especially across
southern portions of southeast MS, and coastal southwest AL where
moisture flux is most favored in current model solutions. Heavy
rainfall will become an increasing concern as bands of convection
spread over these areas, and there may be potential for flooding.

If the current track of the system materializes as forecast, there
will be potential for at least 2-4" of rain with isolated amounts
over 6" along our southern/southwestern zones during the early to
mid week time frame. However, it should be noted that the
potential for heavy rain and flooding could spread inland into
southeast MS/southwest AL during the day Wednesday depending on
the track of the system (more on that in the long term section
below). Likewise, lesser rainfall amounts could occur if the track
goes farther to the south.

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09-02-2018, 12:51 PM
Post: #5
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
5 recon flights starting tomorrow

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09-02-2018, 01:52 PM
Post: #6
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Will be giving away a lightning detector this week . All you have to do is make 1 post to be entered in the contest Smile

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09-02-2018, 02:20 PM
Post: #7
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
All's been quiet but I bet the site fires up this week!!
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09-02-2018, 03:15 PM
Post: #8
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Not to wish bad ju-ju on anyone, but please stay away from the central Texas coast! Still licking our wounds after Harvey.
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09-02-2018, 03:22 PM
Post: #9
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Some mention about this stalling over Houston late in the week has some people in full worry mode already.
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09-02-2018, 03:31 PM
Post: #10
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Really seems to be getting better organized late today. My guess somewhere along the Louisiana coast Tuesday night as a strong TS.
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