Post Reply 
TROPICAL STORM GORDON
09-02-2018, 04:03 PM
Post: #11
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central
Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of
Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach
the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression Monday
morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
South Florida and the Florida Keys.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 04:23 PM
Post: #12
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
(09-02-2018 03:22 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Some mention about this stalling over Houston late in the week has some people in full worry mode already.
60.58Harvey 2017Nederland, Texas
The above is the record for known Rainfall in a tropical cyclone in US. The recorded location is from the airport right next to my neighborhood. My kids worry terribly now about another Harvey. Every time it rains we have to reassure them. Pretty traumatic. So yes... we worry. Shy
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 04:25 PM
Post: #13
91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Moving boats in the AM.

Awesome way to spend your day off

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

"Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 05:55 PM
Post: #14
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
I'll always think of 1994's Gordon when the name comes back in the rotation.

AARoads
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 06:03 PM
Post: #15
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that
the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better
organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-
level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly
during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has
become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated
that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.
However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside
of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.
The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global
models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge
to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the
southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast
period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along
the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly
packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the
middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and
reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

The aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily
increasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now
occurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early
Monday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep
convection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column
to build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation
develops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs
of at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but
steady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows
weakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be
inland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued
strengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a
peak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The
SHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for
this package, and the official forecast is just a little below an
average of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be
forthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to
this first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance
becomes available.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.7N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 06:35 PM
Post: #16
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
thanks Roll... was wondering if everyone was paying attention.

still the best site for the big picture!!

My Storm Creds:
Frederic - 1979
Elena - 1985
Georges - 1998
Ivan - 2004
Katrina - 2005

Mets Creds = 0
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 08:28 PM
Post: #17
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
(09-02-2018 04:23 PM)dme1111 Wrote:  
(09-02-2018 03:22 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Some mention about this stalling over Houston late in the week has some people in full worry mode already.
60.58Harvey 2017Nederland, Texas
The above is the record for known Rainfall in a tropical cyclone in US. The recorded location is from the airport right next to my neighborhood. My kids worry terribly now about another Harvey. Every time it rains we have to reassure them. Pretty traumatic. So yes... we worry. Shy

Been in Houston fifty years. I understand we need to we watchful.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-02-2018, 10:38 PM
Post: #18
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
Latest track from Hurricane Center:

[Image: 032225_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-03-2018, 04:42 AM
Post: #19
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
003
WTNT42 KNHC 030904 CCA
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Corrected motion in second paragraph

The system is gradually becoming better organized with some
increased convective banding features. However, surface and radar
data suggest that a well-defined center of circulation has not yet
formed. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later this morning, and should provide a better estimate of
its intensity and structure. Global model predictions show
a closed circulation forming within 12 to 24 hours, so the official
forecast calls for tropical cyclone status later today. Although
the system should move over the very warm waters of the eastern and
north-central Gulf of Mexico during the next 36 hours, the model
guidance is not very aggressive about intensification. This may be
due to some moderate shear as indicated by the SHIPS model output.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
at the upper end of the numerical guidance suite.

The disturbance appears to have picked up some forward speed, and is
now moving at around 300/14 kt. A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is likely, along the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level anticyclone, until landfall along the northern Gulf
coast. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and is just slightly to the right of and faster than the
previous one.

Given the proximity of the 36-hour forecast point to the coast, it
is time to change the Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys today, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next
few days, including areas that have already received heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 24.5N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
09-03-2018, 04:44 AM
Post: #20
RE: 91L / Tropical Storm Gordon GOM threat
[Image: storm_91.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)