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Subtropical Storm Alberto
05-25-2018, 06:37 PM
Post: #31
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
[Image: storm_90.gif]

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05-25-2018, 08:18 PM
Post: #32
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto



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05-26-2018, 05:43 AM
Post: #33
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Alberto is not very well organized this morning. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east. The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours. Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel. A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air. There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs. The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 21.6N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/0600Z 30.4N 87.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 30/0600Z 33.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0600Z 38.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

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05-26-2018, 07:50 AM
Post: #34
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
I will be headed to a secret location tomorrow and will be streaming live Smile

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05-26-2018, 04:02 PM
Post: #35
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
Tropical Storm warnings now

Quote: 00
WTNT41 KNHC 262051
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Before departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent
in visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this morning. Data from the plane indicate that the
center had reformed in that location and that the pressure had
fallen to 999 mb. The aircraft did not sample the area to the east
of the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and
surface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave
trough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form
during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in deepening
of Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. The shear is forecast to
decrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and
the system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like
structure before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little
strengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air
intrusion.

The system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours,
however, the reformation of the center today makes the initial
motion estimate more uncertain than normal. Alberto should move
northward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn
north-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as
it moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low. The
dynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but
have shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models
lie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward
1800 UTC initial position of Alberto. As a result, the NHC track is
along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise
between the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers.

The new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida
and a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 23.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

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05-26-2018, 09:40 PM
Post: #36
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
East shift in track once again ?

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05-26-2018, 09:58 PM
Post: #37
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
11pm
Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within of the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

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05-26-2018, 10:00 PM
Post: #38
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
[Image: 025741_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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05-27-2018, 07:47 AM
Post: #39
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
out of the cone now and still under a tropical storm warning?

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05-27-2018, 09:42 AM
Post: #40
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
WTNT31 KNHC 271437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 84.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the north-central Gulf Coast has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Florida/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

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