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Subtropical Storm Alberto
05-24-2018, 07:53 PM
Post: #21
INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico
Hi Guys!!
Another season is here. It’s going to be miserable in Pensacola. I’ll be keeping a close watch on the board.



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[SIZE="3"][FONT="Tahoma"]Don't knock the weather, nine-tenths of people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while-Kin Hubbard[/FONT][/SIZE]
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05-24-2018, 08:38 PM
Post: #22
RE: INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico
8pm
Quote: Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,
although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is
likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf
of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if
necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next
week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 200 AM EDT Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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05-24-2018, 08:38 PM
Post: #23
RE: INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico
[Image: storm_90.gif]

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05-25-2018, 06:22 AM
Post: #24
RE: INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico



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05-25-2018, 09:42 AM (This post was last modified: 05-25-2018 09:43 AM by Cahoots.)
Post: #25
RE: INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico
Subtropical Storm Alberto at 10:00... not that anyone is surprised.

Welcome to the 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season... May the odds be forever in your favor.

My Storm Creds:
Frederic - 1979
Elena - 1985
Georges - 1998
Ivan - 2004
Katrina - 2005

Mets Creds = 0
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05-25-2018, 10:19 AM (This post was last modified: 05-25-2018 10:20 AM by Nolaken.)
Post: #26
RE: INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend,
followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track,
Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning,
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.

2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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05-25-2018, 10:25 AM
Post: #27
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
[Image: 144541_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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05-25-2018, 10:26 AM
Post: #28
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.

2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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05-25-2018, 04:01 PM
Post: #29
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
4pm
Quote: WTNT41 KNHC 252058
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little
since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship
observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has
degraded over the past several hours due a pronounced intrusion of
dry mid-/upper-level air and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit
the structure of a subtropical cyclone. The lowest pressure measured
thus far by the aircraft has been 1006 mb. The initial position is a
little north of the recon position of a pronounced swirl due to the
broad overall nature of the low-level circulation.

The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt, but this is considered to
be a short-term motion. A gradual turn toward the north should begin
later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the
Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur
by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday as a sharp
mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of
Mexico combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a
large subtropical ridge to produce deep-layer southerly flow across
Alberto. By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing
mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone
to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast
by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to
collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis
located along the Gulf coast. Slow but steady recurvature into the
westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 h.
The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and the
Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) model.

The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong
westerly wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear
sooner than previously forecast, but the ragged nature of the wind
field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48
hours. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is expected
for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 kt around 60
hours when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and
over SSTs greater than 28 deg C. However, proximity to dry mid-
level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening,
and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory, closely following a blend of the HCCA and ICON consensus
models and the FSSE model.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm
and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at
this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later
advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the
Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is
expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch
areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast
track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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05-25-2018, 04:02 PM
Post: #30
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
Watches issued
Quote: BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Horseshoe Beach, Florida,
westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast of the United States from Indian Pass, Florida, westward
to Grand Isle, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm
is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic
motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
little change in strength forecast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches)
based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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