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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
10-27-2017, 06:44 AM (This post was last modified: 10-28-2017 04:53 PM by Alex.)
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
The NHC has hinted at an area of disturbed weather in the NW Carribean for several days now. With the recent frontal passage here in Florida, and another forecast in the next few days, if this invest does develop, looks like it will be short lived or stay well to the south.

Quote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make
conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and
merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands
and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Image: storm_93.gif]

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10-27-2017, 01:25 PM
Post: #2
RE: Invest 93L - NW Carribean
Upgraded to 80%


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10-28-2017, 12:19 PM
Post: #3
RE: T.D. #18
NHC just upgraded the invest to a tropical depression. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for parts of South Florida and the Keys. This thing will sling shot out, with a front blasting through. Lows forecast in the mid 40s for the Tampa Bay area tomorrow night. Disappointing in that we can use whatever rain we can get now with the long range forecast calling for below normal precip throughout the winter.

[Image: 150737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

Quote:000
WTNT33 KNHC 281459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 82.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeastern
Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Craig Key to Golden Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radars from
Cuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 82.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22
mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A
motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba this
afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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10-28-2017, 04:56 PM
Post: #4
RE: TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
And we now have the P-named storm of the season.
Been cloudy here in Tampa most of the day and a little bit of light rain. SW Florida has been under the canopy of rain echoes all day.

Quote:000
WTNT33 KNHC 282035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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10-29-2017, 08:35 AM
Post: #5
RE: TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
Already racing out to see. The last of the outer rain is still visible from the Melbourne, FL radar.

Some storm reports from Philippe:

Quote:000
NWUS52 KMFL 290427
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM TROPICAL STORM 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/28/2017 AMZ651 FL BUOY

SUSTAINED WIND FROM 143 DEGREES AT 40 KNOTS... 46 MPH
AT 1110PM. GUST FROM 130 DEGREES AT 54 KNOTS... 62 MPH
AT 1103PM AT FOWEY ROCKS... WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANTLY
ELEVATED ANEMOMETER AROUND 42 METERS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700573

$$

HAGEN

We stopped by Key Biscayne at the end of last month and there was still a ton of debris and such from Irma. This probably did not help matters. Furthermore Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park at the south end of the island and Miami Seaquarium was still closed.

Quote:000
NWUS52 KMFL 290352
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 PM TROPICAL STORM 3 ESE FISHER ISLAND 25.75N 80.10W
10/28/2017 AMZ651 FL MESONET

SUSTAINED SSE 38 KNOTS... 44 MPH GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS...
59 MPH AT 1122PM AT XGVT... LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
GOVERNMENT CUT. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT 72 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700572

$$

HAGEN

Quote:000
NWUS52 KMFL 290347
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1147 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 ESE FIU NORTH CAMPUS 25.90N 80.12W
10/28/2017 MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH WAS MEASURED AT 1133PM AT MIAMI
DADE FIRE RESCUE STATION 4... MESONET SITE MDFR4


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700571

$$

HAGEN

Quote:000
NWUS52 KMFL 282311
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
711 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM TORNADO 2 SSW WEST PALM BEACH 26.69N 80.07W
10/28/2017 PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO REPORTED AND CAPTURED ON VIDEO BY TRAINED
SPOTTER NEAR BELVEDERE RD AND INTERSTATE 95. TIME
ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700568

$$

KSCHARF

Quote:000
NWUS52 KMFL 282309
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
709 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM TORNADO 2 NW BOYNTON BEACH 26.55N 80.11W
10/28/2017 PALM BEACH FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE MOBILE HOMES AT A TRAILER PARK NEAR
INTERSECTION OF NW 22ND AVE AND LAWRENCE RD IN BOYNTON
BEACH. LIKELY TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700567

$$

KSCHARF

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