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HURRICANE NATE
10-07-2017, 09:01 PM
Post: #271
RE: HURRICANE NATE
Quote:I was expecting the NHC to give updates more that the normal 10/4/10 pattern with the storm making landfall but they've been almost silent.
I've been wondering this same thing since 5. Don't they normally start hourly updates once they show up on land based radar?
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10-07-2017, 09:10 PM
Post: #272
RE: HURRICANE NATE
(10-07-2017 09:01 PM)twiztidcabbie Wrote:  
Quote:I was expecting the NHC to give updates more that the normal 10/4/10 pattern with the storm making landfall but they've been almost silent.
I've been wondering this same thing since 5. Don't they normally start hourly updates once they show up on land based radar?
(10-07-2017 09:01 PM)twiztidcabbie Wrote:  The NHC operates on updates that are hours apart. Up to date information won't be found, and it makes a big difference with those in the immediate path of a hurricane.
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10-07-2017, 09:15 PM
Post: #273
RE: HURRICANE NATE
Correct, but during Irma, they did hourly updates on their official page once she showed up on Key West radar. Just wondering why they didn't do the same with Nate.
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10-07-2017, 09:17 PM
Post: #274
HURRICANE NATE
They have done this for multiple storms in the past. It's usually an update about every 2 hours once it's within about 12 hours of landfall.


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10-07-2017, 09:21 PM
Post: #275
RE: HURRICANE NATE
Quote:Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updateswill begin at 1600 UTC.
We got them hourly after this. Maybe it's because Irma was posing a much larger threat.
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10-07-2017, 09:29 PM
Post: #276
HURRICANE NATE
I went back to the archive for storms like Ivan, Ike, Irma and so on and it seems to be hit or miss on how they do it regardless of the size.


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10-07-2017, 09:55 PM
Post: #277
RE: HURRICANE NATE
[b]10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 7[/b]

Location: 29.9°N 89.1°W

Moving: N at 20 mph

Min pressure: 984 mb

Max sustained: 85 mph

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10-07-2017, 09:56 PM
Post: #278
RE: HURRICANE NATE
How is this kept at 85mph is the NHC trying to save face ?

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10-07-2017, 09:56 PM
Post: #279
RE: HURRICANE NATE
Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

A ragged central dense overcast persists over Nate's center, but
radar trends have shown all of the deep convection migrating to the
north and northeast of the center, likely due to increasing
south-southwesterly shear. Still, the northern eyewall, which will
be moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite
vigorous. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured
a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values
around 70 kt. Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling
in this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial
intensity of 75 kt. Nate's central pressure has been rising
slowly, with the latest report from the plane being 984 mb.

Nate has turned northward and slowed down a bit with an initial
motion of 360/17 kt. On this course, the hurricane is expected to
make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast within the next
hour or two. After landfall, Nate should turn gradually toward the
northeast and accelerate again during the next day or two while it
moves between a large mid-level high off the southeastern U.S. coast
and a large trough digging into the central U.S. This steering
pattern will take Nate across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and
central Appalachian Mountains during the next couple of days. The
new NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one.

With landfall imminent, no changes in intensity are expected before
that time. After landfall, land and increasing shear should
contribute to fast weakening, and Nate is expected to become a
tropical storm in 6-12 hours and then weaken to a tropical
depression by 36 hours. Nate is likely to become a remnant low by
48 hours, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will be
absorbed by another low or cold front by 72 hours. That scenario
is now reflected in the NHC forecast.


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10-07-2017, 10:09 PM
Post: #280
RE: HURRICANE NATE
https://www.periscope.tv/w/1lPKqwMgMdLJb

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