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HURRICANE NATE
10-04-2017, 07:51 AM
Post: #11
RE: Central Gulf Coast problem



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10-04-2017, 09:31 AM
Post: #12
RE: Central Gulf Coast problem
Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic):

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression
Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

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10-04-2017, 09:54 AM
Post: #13
RE: Central Gulf Coast problem
[Image: 144324_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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10-04-2017, 09:54 AM
Post: #14
RE: Central Gulf Coast problem
11am

Quote: 000
WTNT41 KNHC 041441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

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10-04-2017, 11:54 AM
Post: #15
RE: T.D.#16
Just a quick question. It it does make it into northern GOM if it makes it to hurricane status - are we thinking minimal?
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10-04-2017, 12:02 PM
Post: #16
RE: T.D.#16
(10-04-2017 11:54 AM)Katz5617 Wrote:  Just a quick question. It it does make it into northern GOM if it makes it to hurricane status - are we thinking minimal?
NHC is saying 80mph but I wouldn't rule out a cat 2 at this point and time

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10-04-2017, 12:59 PM
Post: #17
RE: T.D.#16
..........


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10-04-2017, 02:01 PM
Post: #18
RE: T.D.#16
Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Southwest Caribbean




Dr. Jeff Masters

·

October 4, 2017, 12:39 PM EDT





[Image: td16-oct4.jpg]


Above: GOES-16 view of of TD 16, at noon EDT Wednesday, October 4, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 imagery is considered preliminary and non-operational.
Dangerous Tropical Depression 16
formed on Wednesday morning in the Southwestern Caribbean off the coast
of Nicaragua, and is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Nate later
in the day as it moves northwest at 7 mph. TD 16 is likely to be a
significant rainfall threat to Central America over the next two days,
and a dangerous rainfall, storm surge, and wind threat for portions of
the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
[Image: nate-wind-oct4.png]Figure 1.
The 11 am Wednesday NHC forecast for the probability of
tropical-storm-force winds for the five days ending on Monday, October
9, 2017. The Panhandle of Florida was given about a 30 - 40% chance of
tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with those winds potentially
arriving as early as Saturday night. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC.
Tropical
storm warnings are up for much of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras,
but the main danger to Central America from TD 16 will be torrential
rains: 15 – 20” in Nicaragua, 5 – 10” in Panama and Costa Rica, and 2 –
5” in Honduras. Much of the heavy rain in Nicaragua will occur on the
Pacific side, as TD 16’s large circulation pulls moisture from the
Pacific across Central America and into the Southwest Caribbean.
Satellite imagery
on Wednesday afternoon showed that TD 16 was in the early stages of
organization, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and a couple of
prominent low-level spiral bands. One spiral band was already bringing
heavy rain to Panama, as seen on Panama radar.
Conditions were very favorable for development, with light wind shear
around 5 knots, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) a very warm 30.5°C
(85°F), and an unusually moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative
humidity of 85%.
[Image: ohc-oct4.gif]Figure 2.
Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for October 4, 2017. Forecast positions for TD
16 from the 11 am EDT Wednesday NHC forecast are also shown. OHC values
in excess of 80 kilojoules per square centimeter (yellow-green colors)
are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. TD 16 is
expected to be passing over two areas of very high ocean heat content,
with very warm waters that extend to great depth: in the Western
Caribbean off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula, and again in the Gulf of
Mexico, over the northern portion of the Loop Current, where a warm eddy appears to be attempting to break off. Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
Intensity forecast for TD 16
TD 16 is in a favorable environment for intensification. The 12Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model
predicted that wind shear would mostly be low, 5 – 10 knots, through
Saturday, with SSTs a very warm 30 – 30.5°C (84 - 85°F), and an
unusually moist atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 80 –
85%. After TD 16 creates its own distinct identity within the larger
gyre of low pressure it is embedded in, the main impediment to
intensification is likely to be interaction with land. The center of TD
16 is expected to pass over northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua during
the day on Thursday, and then potentially encounter the northeastern tip
of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula or the western tip of Cuba on Friday
night.
The Wednesday morning runs
of our top five intensity models showed modest intensification of TD
16, with only the HWRF model predicting that TD 16 would become a
Category 1 hurricane before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast on
Sunday. However, TD 16 will be passing over two areas of very high
ocean heat content (OHC), with very warm waters that extend to great
depth: in the Western Caribbean off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula, and
again in the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2.) If TD 16 has not been
significantly disrupted by passage over land, the storm will have the
opportunity to rapidly intensify by 30 mph or more in 24 hours when
crossing over these warm ocean areas. The way this hurricane season has
gone, it is safer to predict intensification at the upper end of what
our intensity models are predicting. NHC’s forecast of a Category 1
hurricane at landfall in the Florida this weekend is a reasonable one at
this point, but TD 16 could just as easily be a Category 2 hurricane—or
a large and very wet tropical storm that was never able to get its act
together, due to land interaction. The 12Z Wednesday run of the HWRF
model predicts that TD 16 will spend very little time over
Nicaragua/Honduras on Thursday, with the storm becoming Hurricane Nate
by late Thursday afternoon. If this track does indeed verify, I expect
that TD 16 will be a Category 1 hurricane on Friday afternoon when it
makes its closest pass to Cozumel, the northeastern tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula, and the western tip of Cuba.
[Image: gfs-oct4.gif]Figure 3. The
20 track forecasts for TD 16 from the 6Z Wednesday, October 4, 2017 GFS
model ensemble forecast. A more westerly track into Louisiana is
preferred.
[Image: euro-oct4.png]Figure 4.
The 0Z Wednesday October 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational
European model for TD 16 (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary
technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the
track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble
(heavy black line), and the track forecasts from all 50 members of the
ensemble. A more easterly track into the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend
area is preferred. Image credit: CFAN.
Track forecast for TD 16
Southerly
flow around the eastern flank of an upper level trough of low pressure
over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer TD 16 to the
northwest, then north, over the next three days, and the NHC cone of
uncertainty extends from coastal Alabama eastward to near Cedar Key,
Florida on Sunday morning. There is a considerable spread in where the
models say TD 16 might eventually make landfall, with the 0Z, 6Z, and
12Z Wednesday runs of the GFS model predicting a landfall in Louisiana,
and the 0Z Wednesday runs of the European and UKMET models predicting a
landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The NHC discussion on Wednesday
morning stated that their analysis showed that the GFS model had the
trough steering TD 16 to be too strong, resulting in a track too far too
the west.

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10-04-2017, 02:02 PM
Post: #19
RE: T.D.#16
[Image: 951e6ddf28ac08ab85cc90511acc82e2200289b8...&h=600]

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10-04-2017, 02:05 PM
Post: #20
RE: T.D.#16
[Image: 76add59004ed734575fe78c87847b0af7438525a...&h=629]

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