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Maria
09-15-2017, 07:02 AM (This post was last modified: 09-17-2017 07:24 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
Maria
Code Orange

Quote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3
days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Image: storm_96.gif]

AARoads
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09-15-2017, 08:40 AM
Post: #2
RE: Invest 96
This is major trouble down the road !

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09-15-2017, 09:59 AM
Post: #3
RE: Invest 96
FML...really...FML

/stupid
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09-15-2017, 01:21 PM
Post: #4
RE: Invest 96
Code Red now:

Quote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

AARoads
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09-16-2017, 07:56 AM
Post: #5
RE: Invest 96
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen,
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs
of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined
center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm
watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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09-16-2017, 01:53 PM
Post: #6
RE: Invest 96
[Image: 173152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-16-2017, 04:44 PM (This post was last modified: 09-16-2017 04:51 PM by brentwpb.)
Post: #7
RE: Invest 96
This cannot happen again like 2004. 3 hurricanes hit florida back then and maria is now out there taking irmas path only lower in latitude. According to windy app, on 24th it will be off of coast of Carolina's but we all know how bad long term forecasting is.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Actually i am incorrect jose to the left and maria to the right in this picture. Windy was updated again[Image: 8744c86cab249f52243f144cb31bf655.jpg]

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09-17-2017, 07:24 AM
Post: #8
RE: Marie
000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing
convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.
Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.

Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now
moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure
area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the
next several days. This should result in a continued
west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The
official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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09-17-2017, 12:23 PM
Post: #9
RE: Maria
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Dominica.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move
across the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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09-17-2017, 04:00 PM
Post: #10
RE: Maria
please turn North ..... now.
Everyone, especially the Islands needs a break
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