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Maria
09-20-2017, 10:07 PM
Post: #31
RE: Maria
10pm

Quote: 000
WTNT45 KNHC 210300
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The satellite presentation is a little better organized than
a few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye. However,
data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
winds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained
unchanged oscillating near 959 mb. Even with the current favorable
low-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24
hours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the
passage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico. In addition,
the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric
eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the
inner one has collapsed in the last fix. This suggest that an
eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred. With this complex
scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in
intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category
3 status in about 24 hours.

Maria continues right on track, moving toward the northwest or 310
degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is expected to be steered
north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over
the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. The only change to the
previous forecast is a small shift to the east by the end of the
forecast period as indicated by most of the track models. By then,
Maria should have reached the northwestern edge of the ridge. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP corrected consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should continue to
subside through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected
to continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 19.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.3N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.7N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 26.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 32.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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09-21-2017, 10:52 AM
Post: #32
RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the
hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the
previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as
high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has
remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds
measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight
meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running
5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100
kt.

Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from
Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher
oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore,
some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially
aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing.
Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some
increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat
content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to
remain a hurricane for the next 5 days.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be
moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to
turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the
western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly
clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the
previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.2N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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09-21-2017, 01:12 PM
Post: #33
RE: Maria
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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09-21-2017, 06:46 PM
Post: #34
RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

The last pass of today's Air Force reconnaissance flight found
maximum flight-level winds of 117 kt in the northeastern eyewall,
which supported increasing the intensity to 105 kt in the 2 PM
intermediate advisory. The SFMR instrument continued to report
higher winds, as was mentioned in the previous discussion. However,
Maria has been moving over the Navidad and Silver Banks to the
north of the Dominican Republic, where water depths are less than
30 meters deep in some places, and it is likely that shoaling
effects inflated some of these numbers.

Maria continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of
Bermuda. As Maria moves around this high, and toward an elongated
trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the
Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to turn north-northwestward within
24 hours and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast
period. This motion will take Maria's center very close to the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the
next 24 hours, but the hurricane should then stay over the waters
of the western Atlantic through day 5. The track models remain
stable, and there is very little cross-track spread even at day 5.
The guidance has slowed down a bit by the end of the forecast
period due to Maria possibly interacting with a shortwave trough
moving off the southeastern U.S. coast, and the new NHC forecast is
therefore a little slower than the previous one at that time.

SHIPS diagnostics indicate that southwesterly shear will be
increasing over Maria during the next 12-24 hours, even though the
hurricane will begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat
content. While it can't be ruled out that Maria might still
strengthen a bit, the preponderance of the guidance suggests that
the cyclone will only maintain its intensity for the next 12 hours
and then begin a gradual decrease in strength on Friday. That
trend should continue through the end of the forecast period, but
Maria is expected to remain a hurricane through day 5. For now,
the NHC forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,
hedging toward the slower decay shown by the SHIPS model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

3. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely
to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.8N 69.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 23.0N 71.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 24.5N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 31.0N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
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09-22-2017, 06:21 AM
Post: #35
RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to
959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind
estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt. Since that time,
the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become
less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The initial
intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane
near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous. Maria
is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in
convective banding in the western semicircle.

The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the
forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a
gradual weakening. In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes
the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by
the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the
new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first
48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening
than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters.

The initial motion is 315/6. Maria will be moving between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the
southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during
the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to
turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the
forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track. After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent.
The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope
showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right
side showing a north-northeastward motion. This part of the
forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old
forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to
cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 21.6N 70.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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