Maria

[ROLLTIDE]

[Alex]

Tracks are favoring a curve out to sea after Maria's encounter with the southeast Bahamas:

[ROLLTIDE]

Cat 5 160mph now

[Nolaken]

Martinique radar

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antille...f_com.html

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

Really unbelievable.. those poor people in the islands are going to get whacked again. Puerto Rico is densely populated and not equipped to handle something like this.

[Nolaken]

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

[ROLLTIDE]

..

Quote: 000
WTNT45 KNHC 190853
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain
of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of
the hurricane. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about
135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength. Another Air Force
aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data
from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained
category 5 intensity. Maria will be moving through a low-shear
atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next
couple of days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the
early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events.
Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36
hours. Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical
shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast
is near or above the latest model consensus.

After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt.
There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory package. A weak ridge situated over the western
Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48
hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to
pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to
weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of
Hurricane Jose. This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward by day 4-5. There is fairly good agreement
amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one. This is generally near the
left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and
the corrected consensus predictions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 62.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.5N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
48H 21/0600Z 19.3N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 21.2N 70.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 23.7N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the last
advisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140
kt with a central pressure near 927 mb. The aircraft data suggests
an outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewall
replacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a good
signature in radar data or microwave imagery.

The eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smoother
long-term motion is 300/9. There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previous
advisory. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is
expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on
this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or
over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that
time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken,
partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane
Jose off the U.S. east coast. This pattern should cause Maria to
turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5. The
track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly well
clustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center of
the cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Maria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48
h, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensity
forecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall in
Puerto Rico. After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds are
expected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast shows
a slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance. A
complication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely be
fluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on
top of the general trends shown in the official forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands
today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone
in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[Nolaken]

From Weather Underground:
Bob Henson

·

September 19, 2017, 11:41 AM EDT


Short-term forecast for Maria
There is
increasing confidence that Maria will reach St. Croix and Puerto Rico on
Wednesday with catastrophic results. Now that Maria has regained Cat 5
intensity, there is nothing between the storm and these islands that
would lead to a major drop in strength. In fact, conditions are just
about as favorable as they can be for sustaining a Category 5 hurricane,
and it's not out of the question that Maria could become even stronger.
Wind shear is predicted to stay very low (6 knots or less) for at least
the next 48 hours, and Maria will be passing over very warm waters of
29-30°C (84-86°F). These warm waters are deep enough to provide
substantial oceanic heat content (greater than 50 kilojoules per square
centimeter), which will limit the potential of Maria’s fierce winds to
churn up cooler water. If Maria embarks on an eyewall replacement cycle
(EWRC) on Tuesday, the storm could drop to Category 4 strength by the
time it approaches Puerto Rico. This process would spread Maria’s
hurricane-force winds over a broader area, though.
Models are in
very close agreement on Maria’s west-northwest path. Among our top track
models, the European and UKMET model runs from 00Z Tuesday, and the GFS
and HMON runs from 06Z Tuesday, all bring Maria’s center very close to
St. Croix and across Puerto Rico from southeast to northwest on
Wednesday. Conditions would be worst on the right-hand side of Maria’s
track, but the entire island is at risk of severe hurricane
conditions—likely the worst and most extensive in almost a century. The
outlier among our better track models has been HWRF, which has
consistently called for Maria to angle northwest toward the British
Virgin Islands and just miss Puerto Rico. Several runs ago, the GFS and
HMON were predicting a similar track, but they now agree with the Euro
and UKMET on a direct hit to Puerto Rico, so we are best off discounting
the HWRF (especially since the 12Z Tuesday run of the HWRF trended
further west, in closer agreement with the other models).
A track
crossing Puerto Rico from southeast to northwest will bring torrential
rainfall and the risk of landslides to both northern- and
southern-facing mountainsides. Localized rainfal of 25" or more is
possible in Puerto Rico, with amounts of 20" possible in the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. Rainbands sweeping into Maria from the south
could also dump as much as 12" of rain on southern parts of the
Dominican Republic, again posing a threat of landslides.
Along
with the direct impacts likely in St. Croix, one of the three U.S.
Virgin Islands, Maria could move far enough north for severe hurricane
conditions to affect the other two U.S. Virgin Islands—St. Thomas and
St. John—and perhaps the British Virgin Islands as well. All of these
except for St. Croix took a fierce hit from Hurricane Irma just weeks
ago, so even a lesser blow from Maria could have outsized consequences
to residents and structures left vulnerable in the wake of Irma. Storm
surge could bring worst-case inundation levels of 6' - 9' over parts of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[ROLLTIDE]

Down to 916mb

Quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and
flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central
pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb. The
aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.

The initial motion remains 300/9. The forecast track philosophy
remains the same, with the eye of Maria expected to move near the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and across Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
followed by a motion just north of the eastern Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday. Subsequently, a break in the
subtropical ridge caused in part by Hurricane Jose should allow
Maria to turn north-northwestward and northward by the end of the
forecast period. Only minor changes have occurred in the track
guidance since the last advisory, and the new track has only minor
adjustments from the previous track.

Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will
be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start
of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little
bit. The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and
after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level
winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening. The new
intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and
Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.
Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to
avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.8N 64.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 17.5N 65.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 18.4N 66.7W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
36H 21/0600Z 19.3N 68.1W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 21/1800Z 20.2N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 25.5N 72.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN