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Maria
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09-20-2017, 10:07 PM
Post: #31
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RE: Maria
10pm
Quote: 000 Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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09-21-2017, 10:52 AM
Post: #32
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RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running 5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore, some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing. Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.2N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
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09-21-2017, 01:12 PM
Post: #33
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RE: Maria
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES |
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09-21-2017, 06:46 PM
Post: #34
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RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 69.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 The last pass of today's Air Force reconnaissance flight found maximum flight-level winds of 117 kt in the northeastern eyewall, which supported increasing the intensity to 105 kt in the 2 PM intermediate advisory. The SFMR instrument continued to report higher winds, as was mentioned in the previous discussion. However, Maria has been moving over the Navidad and Silver Banks to the north of the Dominican Republic, where water depths are less than 30 meters deep in some places, and it is likely that shoaling effects inflated some of these numbers. Maria continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda. As Maria moves around this high, and toward an elongated trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to turn north-northwestward within 24 hours and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. This motion will take Maria's center very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next 24 hours, but the hurricane should then stay over the waters of the western Atlantic through day 5. The track models remain stable, and there is very little cross-track spread even at day 5. The guidance has slowed down a bit by the end of the forecast period due to Maria possibly interacting with a shortwave trough moving off the southeastern U.S. coast, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous one at that time. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that southwesterly shear will be increasing over Maria during the next 12-24 hours, even though the hurricane will begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat content. While it can't be ruled out that Maria might still strengthen a bit, the preponderance of the guidance suggests that the cyclone will only maintain its intensity for the next 12 hours and then begin a gradual decrease in strength on Friday. That trend should continue through the end of the forecast period, but Maria is expected to remain a hurricane through day 5. For now, the NHC forecast remains just above the intensity consensus, hedging toward the slower decay shown by the SHIPS model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. 3. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.8N 69.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 23.0N 71.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 24.5N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 31.0N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH |
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09-22-2017, 06:21 AM
Post: #35
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RE: Maria
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to 959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt. Since that time, the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous. Maria is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in convective banding in the western semicircle. The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a gradual weakening. In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first 48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters. The initial motion is 315/6. Maria will be moving between the subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent. The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right side showing a north-northeastward motion. This part of the forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.6N 70.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
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